Sunday, July 22, 2012

Deep League Trade Analysis

I'm a little late to this, but since I missed it as part of Friday's Gearing Up, here's a quick look at the Astros/Blue Jays 10-player trade. Only nine players are listed below since there's a PTBNL.

The Blue Jays get...
Happ has become one of those players that I seem to keep acquiring in my deep leagues because I somehow believe that every time he has a solid outing that he's going to turn some kind of corner. The truth is that Happ is likely to always be what he is: a back end of the rotation starter who is only going to provide single-digit value (at best) even in only leagues. He's also moving to the bullpen (for now) in Toronto. The scuttlebutt is that he's eventually going to replace someone in the Jays rotation (probably Brett Cecil), but you can't place a bid on Happ assuming this will happen. I'd put a very nominal bid on Happ. He's not going to worth it at a $10 keeper price either, so if you're playing for 2013 don't bother.

Lyon has been used as a closer from time to time throughout his career, but Casey Janssen has been terrific of late so Lyon's clearly going to pitch in non-save situations. Since Lyon's not a big strikeout guy, you're better off avoiding him. If you have Janssen and really want the potential handcuff, fine, but there are better ways to use those roster spots.

It's all potential with Carpenter right now. He throws hard but doesn't have much else going for him. My feelings on speculating on future closers are pretty strong; unless you're in a league with Ultra-like reserve lists, it's not worth your time.

The Astros get...
It was announced yesterday that Cordero will be the Astros closer now that they flipped Brett Myers to the White Sox. Cordero hasn't even been above average for a couple of years now, and looks extremely diminished. You obviously have to bid in leagues where saves mean anything, but be wary of the fact that Wilton Lopez is probably the man long-term and of the fact that the Astros might very well flip Cordero again at the deadline.

I've always liked Francisco for deep leagues. He should at the very least play against left-handed pitchers and could find more playing time given how weak the options are in front of him. Don't expect a lot here, but Francisco could provide some sneaky pop and a slight amount of speed in a platoon role.

Joe Musgrove, Asher Wojciehowski, David Rollins, Carlos Perez
I lump these guys together because none of them are worthy of note in leagues with limited farm systems or reserve lists, at least not yet. In real baseball, getting two or three of the Astros Top 20 prospects for Happ, Lyon, and Carpenter is a solid rate of return. In Roto, though, we can safely ignore these guys for now.

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