Thursday, May 31, 2012

Valuations to Date: N.L. HItters

Continuing my series on league valuation to date with the National League hitters.

Top 10 Hitters:
1) Ryan Braun $46
2) Melky Cabrera $45
3) Carlos Beltran $41
4) Carlos Gonzalez $41
5) Andrew McCutchen $39
6) David Wright $38
7) Starlin Castro $36
8) Matt Kemp $36
9) Rafael Furcal $36
10) Giancarlo Stanton $35

Cabrera, Beltran and Furcal are the big surprises here; everyone else was fairly expensive/expected to produce. For all those that were worried that Braun was going to slump after his testing brouhaha or that Wright was not going to stay healthy it looks like you didn't need to worry. It's nice to see McCutchen, Castro and Stanton proudly representing the next wave of young talent.

Bottom 10 Hitters (Auctioned Only)
1) Marlon Byrd (-$6)
2) Jason Bartlett (-$6)
3) Clint Barmes (-$6)
4) Mark DeRosa (-$5)
5) Nate McLouth (-$5)
6) Ryan Theriot (-$3)
7) Jim Thome (-$2)
8) Casey McGehee (-$2)
9) Chris Coghlan (-$2)
10) Rickie Weeks (-$1)

These are the 10 hitters who received at least one bid in the expert auctions (CBS, LABR, Tout Wars) and are doing the worst thus far. Byrd is off to the American League, and unlike LABR and Tout Wars I don't count stats over there, so he'll be negative all year. Weeks is the only big investment here, and Byrd and Bartlett are the only other hitters that cost double digits. It's a bummer that Coghlan is going the Rookie of the Year bust route, but with an average salary of $1, it's a yawner in Roto at this point.

Top 10 Profits
1) M. Cabrera +29
2) Rafael Furcal +26
3) Carlos Ruiz +24
4) Beltran +23
5) Omar Infante +22
6) Yadier Molina +20
7) A.J. Ellis +18
8) Chris Johnson +18
9) Jonathan Lucroy +17
10) Gerardo Parra +16

Furcal and Ruiz have prevented my Tout Wars offense from being absolutely pathetic. Ellis is everyone's favorite N.L.-only surprise, but catchers have been surprising on the whole. Ruiz and Molina have been even more of a surprise and Lucroy isn't that far behind. There are some players here having a resurgence but others like Cabrera and Beltran that the market refused to believe would repeat and are either repeating or have improved.

Top 10 Losses
1) Michael Morse -25
2) Weeks -22
3) Ike Davis -20
4) Gaby Sanchez -19
5) Chase Utley -17
6) Byrd -17
7) Ryan Zimmerman -16
8) Bartlett -16
9) Ryan Howard -15
10) Justin Upton -14 

There are quite a few DNP players here, with Morse the most expensive heading into the season. This is a relatively young group but there aren't any rookies here; most of these players are young with experience. There isn't a particular profile to any of these players; this group seems designed to destroy your typical fantasy baseball mythologies. Any player can be a bust; trying to declare closers or old players or other types of players busts is usually an exercise in futility.

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