Friday, March 09, 2012

Formulas for Earnings

Zucchini Boy asks another common question: where do I get my prices?
Can you post your formulas for calculating earnings? Or does it stay the same from year to year?
I have posted the formulas below. As noted in last year's earnings article, my pricing formulas are modeled after Alex Patton's pricing model. I strongly recommend checking out Patton's Notes for Masochists if you really want to dive into how his Rotisserie pricing model was derived.

American League
$R 2.35 * R/31.41
$HR 2.35 * HR/9.25
$RBI 2.35 * RBI/30.96
$SB 2.35 * SB/8.23
$BA 2.35 *((1443.92 + H) / (5500 + AB) - .26253) / .0016

$W 2.35 * W/4.47
$SV 2.35 * SV/8.58
$ERA 2.35 * ((3.9439 - ((ER + 525.85) / (IP + 1200)*9))/0.07
$WHIP 2.35 * (11.481 - ((H + BB + 1530.8) / (IP + 1200)*9))/0.11
$K 2.35 * K/46

National League

$R 2.35 * R/28.58
$HR 2.35 * HR/8.22
$RBI 2.35 * RBI/27.58
$SB 2.35 * SB/7.58
$BA 2.35 *((1448.48 + H) / (5500 + AB) - .26336) / .0016

$W 2.35 * W/4.47
$SV 2.35 * SV/8.58
$ERA 2.35 * ((3.6782 - ((ER + 490.43) / (IP + 1200)*9))/0.07
$WHIP 2.35 * (11.3518 - ((H + BB + 1513.37) / (IP + 1200)*9))/0.11
$K 2.35 * K/54.8

Wins and saves stay flat in the formulas (the presumption is that there are always the same number of wins and generally the same number of saves in Major League Baseball every year) but everything else has the potential to change based on how each league's hitters and pitchers actually perform. At bats and innings also remain constant due to the same principle, but batting average, ERA and WHIP baselines obviously change from season to season.

The 2010 formulas are located here. The formulas look slightly different...but there is some impact on player prices from year to year. For example, Matt Kemp earned $53 in 2011...he would have "only" earned $50 using the 2010 formulas. Carlos Gonzalez had a $45 season in 2010, but that would have been worth $47 in 2011's context. When you get down to the players in the middle of the earnings curve, though, there is very little movement in earnings due to contextual changes.

2 comments:

Rob said...

Can this be used to calculate auction values for this year? Or is this specific for the 2011 environment?

zucchiniboy said...

thanks Mike!!