2011 saw an interesting development at the second base position: every second basemen in the Top 10 earners fell into double-digit earnings. As Mike G. noted, however, this does not mean these players earned a profit, but it does mean that the position got a little deeper in 2011 than in years' past. Here is a look at last year’s top earners:
Top 10 N.L. Second Basemen, 2011
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | $30 | 27 | 3 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 26 | $24 | |
2 | $21 | 20 | 1 | 23 | 18 | 18 | 17 | $17 | |
3 | $20 | 26 | -6 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 24 | $29 | |
4 | $20 | 23 | -3 | 25 | 20 | 24 | 22 | $27 | |
5 | $19 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 10 | $3 | |
6 | $15 | 23 | -8 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 12 | $20 | |
7 | $15 | 22 | -8 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 20 | $24 | |
8 | $14 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | $14 | |
9 | $14 | 15 | -1 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 12 | $19 | |
10 | $13 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | $14 | |
Average | $18 | 19 | -1 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 16 | $19 |
Of course, this list always looks a little different than the 10 most expensive second basemen list, but, in 2011, eight of the ten most expensive second basemen were among the ten top earners:
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Second Basemen, 2011
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | $30 | 27 | 3 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 26 | $24 | |
2 | $20 | 26 | -6 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 24 | $29 | |
3 | $15 | 23 | -8 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 12 | $20 | |
4 | $20 | 23 | -3 | 25 | 20 | 24 | 22 | $27 | |
5 | $15 | 22 | -8 | 24 | 21 | 22 | 20 | $24 | |
6 | $12 | 21 | -9 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 21 | $26 | |
7 | $21 | 20 | 1 | 23 | 18 | 18 | 17 | $17 | |
8 | $14 | 15 | -1 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 12 | $19 | |
9 | $19 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 10 | $3 | |
10 | $10 | 12 | -1 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 12 | $15 | |
Average | $18 | $20 | -3 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | $20 |
Of course, as is true just about every year, the bottom-feeders generated the best profit, though Espinosa and Phillips did sneak onto the profit list as well:
Top 10 Profits, 2011 N.L. Second Basemen
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW | PK | 2010 |
1 | $12 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | $11 | ||
2 | $9 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | $15 | ||
3 | Jerry Hairston Jr. | $9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | $11 |
4 | $6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | $8 | |||
5 | $14 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | $14 | |
6 | Danny Espinosa | $19 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 10 | $3 |
7 | $4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | $5 | |||
8 | $9 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | $7 | |
9 | Eric Young Jr. | $11 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 8 | R3 | $7 |
10 | Brandon Phillips | $30 | 27 | 3 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 26 | $24 |
Average | $12 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | $11 |
So what happened in CBS in 2012?
The Song Remains the Same
Brandon Phillips $30, Dan Uggla $28
Phillips got paid $28 by CBS in 2011 off his 2010 earnings, then went out and earned $30 and got paid par. He is only 30 years old, but the steals are already starting to come down some; query whether his other skills will begin to erode as well, or if they will overcome the stolen base loss. I find it unlikely, however, he earns $30 again this year. No one in CBS is scared by Uggla’s 2011 campaign. There mere fact Uggla hit .233 is cause for joy, as it appeared he was destined to something in the .190s for a good part of the season. He gets no drop in salary despite the $9 loss in earnings. At 32, we have to be wary of this average, though I do not expect a power drop off…yet.
Our Second Place Finishers Are
Richie Weeks $21, Chase Utley $20, Neil Walker $18
Weeks has managed to stay on the field for one full year so far, so every bid on Weeks is both a discount of his true earning potential and a gamble he avoid significant injury. Weeks is now in the three hole, so his stolen base value continues to drop, but his RBI, Runs and Home Run numbers should sustain themselves or improve. I had Weeks a tick below this $21 salary, so I cannot say it is a bad buy for the price. Speaking of healthy, it is unlikely Utley will be fully healthy again. As we now know, he will likely start the season on the disabled list again, and, well, we really have no timetable for his return. The hip and knee injuries are arthritic and will worsen the more he plays. Utley managed to earn $15 last year despite the limited at-bats. We need to throw that out the window now, though. The $20 bid pushed the envelope before this news, and it is well beyond the reasonable range for him now. Walker took Pittsburgh by storm last year. He strikes out a lot, but has decent pop, decent speed, decent batting eye and decent average. In short, he is a decent player, and $18 is a decent price.
Drum Roll Please
Danny Espinosa $17, Daniel Murphy $15, Aaron Hill $13
Speaking of guys who strike out a lot, Espinosa ranks up there on that list. There are a lot of good signs for Espinosa: the K rate went down slightly, the BB rate went up slightly, the contact rate went up and the line drive rate went up. The slugging dropped a little bit, but he still hit 21 home runs. At 24, with his power and speed, he should continue to be a good fantasy earner, and $17 might be a little light for him in the long run. Murphy is rumored to be playing second base…too bad the National League does not have a designated hitter, because all this will do for Murphy is get him hurt. Murphy does not strike out or walk much, but he can hit and has a little pop in that bat. He also carries some multiple positional eligibility with him (1B/2B/3B), and, all in all, this is a fairly solid bid. Will the real Aaron Hill please stand up? One year it is power, another year it is speed, with an average that is all over the board. The K/BB is solid and consistent, so, for Hill, average will be dictated by BABIP. The speed should play in Arizona; that team likes to run. The question is whether the power will come back…if it does, Hill is easily a $20 player. If not, you are like to see $15 in earnings. Either way, $13 is not a bad price for Hill, assuming he does not repeat his 2010 average.
Bottoms Up
Mark Ellis $5, Omar Infante $4, Orlando Hudson $3, Ruben Tejada $3, Freddy Sanchez $3, Darwin Barney $2, Tyler Greene $1
I would not describe Mark Ellis as a sexy player, but I would describe him as an earner; Mike's phraseology is "he moves the chains." He has earned double-digits in 5x5 for 5 straight years, and is almost guaranteed to earn a profit at this price. You just do not want to get caught in an end-game battle for him, where he goes for $9-$10. It is not too often you see a solid earner and a starter sitting at $4 in an auction. Infante, however, is untrusted and could lose some playing time on a thick Marlins roster. I had Infante at nearly double this price on my sheet; I was locked up on the offensive side of the roster and could do nothing about it. Of course, part of the reason I was locked out was my purchase of Hudson at $3. Hudson is getting up there in age, but has enough pop and enough speed to easily out-earn this $3 bid. Tejada is another starter with a reasonable price tag. All signs point up for Tejada…he is only 22, has a good eye, puts the ball in play and is a good base-runner. His skill set does not suggest a huge breakout, particularly at this age, but he could be another double digit earner out of this bottom group. Sanchez is old and injured. With his average, he still earned $6/$7 last year in only 300 at-bats, but he is a much riskier proposition than some of his counter parts here. Tyler Greene is what he is: a sub who can play the middle infield and steal enough bases to turn a small profit at this price.
I saved Darwin Barney for last. He is very much like most other second basemen in this group – a starter at a very low salary. The reason I chose to speak about him last is that I have been down on him in the past and wanted to give him a fair shake. He is going to get full opportunity to play. He put on a substantial amount of muscle mass, though the coaches say he retained his great quickness. He does not walk much, but is adept at getting the ball into play. He earned $14 in 5x5 last year in 500 at-bats, so I think it is foolish not to pay at least half of those earnings for a 26 year old with no rival to his job.
And this is a good point upon which to end this piece…CBS paid a total of $21 for this group of 7 second basemen in the bottom tier. Their rough combined earnings last year? $74. You do not want to overpay for these guys, but you also do not want to hand your opponent ROI after ROI. This is why you come up with bid prices and stick with them…otherwise, the room benefits to your distinct disadvantage.
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