This led me to wonder if: a) do last year's bargain players get cheated the following year and b) as a result, are they bargains the following season?
Top 10 Profits 2010 A.L. Hitters in 2011
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | 2010 |
| 1 | Jose Bautista | $34 | 29 | 5 | $34 |
| 2 | Josh Hamilton | $26 | 32 | -6 | $38 |
| 3 | Austin Jackson | $17 | 17 | 0 | $24 |
| 4 | Paul Konerko | $26 | 25 | 1 | $32 |
| 5 | Mike Aviles | $11 | 10 | 0 | $18 |
| 6 | Brett Gardner | $25 | 22 | 2 | $27 |
| 7 | Jim Thome | $10 | 3 | 6 | $16 |
| 8 | Daric Barton | $1 | 12 | -11 | $16 |
| 9 | Delmon Young | $13 | 21 | -8 | $26 |
| 10 | Juan Pierre | $20 | 24 | -4 | $33 |
| Average | $18 | 20 | -2 | $26 |
The chart above lists the 10 biggest A.L. hitter bargains from 2010 and how they did in 2011.
Right away, you can see that the market definitely does discount these guys the next year. Not a single player on this chart gets a raise; in fact, everyone except Barton gets a $5 pay cut or more. But then the pay cuts seem justified. Bautista is the only hitter here who doesn't earn less in 2011 than he did in 2010, and Thome is the only other hitter to turn more than a $2 profit. Judging by these players, the market recognized that these players were due for some regression and adjusted pretty well across the board.
Perhaps the story is different in the National League?
Top 10 Profits 2010 N.L. Hitters in 2011
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | 2010 |
| 1 | Angel Pagan | $22 | $20 | 2 | $30 |
| 2 | Carlos Gonzalez | $33 | 39 | -6 | $45 |
| 3 | Omar Infante | $14 | 15 | -1 | $19 |
| 4 | Chris Young | $22 | 24 | -2 | $29 |
| 5 | Neil Walker | $21 | 20 | 1 | $17 |
| 6 | Buster Posey | $6 | 25 | -19 | $19 |
| 7 | Starlin Castro | $30 | 19 | 10 | $15 |
| 8 | Mike Stanton | $25 | 26 | -1 | $15 |
| 9 | Aubrey Huff | $11 | 19 | -8 | $27 |
| 10 | Jonny Gomes | $9 | $9 | -0 | $19 |
| Average | $19 | 22 | -2 | $24 |
If anything, the N.L. is a starker example of why you should discount last year's surprises.
Only Castro and Stanton - young players who weren't up for the full year in 2010 - earned more in 2011 than they did in 2010. Again, the market does a solid job here trying to discount these players by a fair amount yet still loses money on the group. So far, the evidence doesn't suggest that paying Francoeur to earn another $27 in 2012 is a good idea.
One year isn't enough data you say? Fine...let's turn the dials back one more year.
Top 10 Profits 2009 A.L. Hitters in 2010
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | 2009 |
| 1 | Ben Zobrist | $18 | 25 | -7 | $27 |
| 2 | Kendrys Morales | $9 | 27 | -18 | $27 |
| 3 | Rajai Davis | $27 | 18 | 9 | $23 |
| 4 | Jason Bartlett | $12 | 20 | -8 | $28 |
| 5 | Aaron Hill | $10 | 24 | -13 | $27 |
| 6 | Marlon Byrd | $20 | 12 | 8 | $19 |
| 7 | Marco Scutaro | $17 | 14 | 4 | $19 |
| 8 | Franklin Gutierrez | $17 | 18 | 0 | $21 |
| 9 | Maicer Izturis | $6 | 11 | -4 | $18 |
| 10 | Michael Cuddyer | $20 | 20 | 0 | $22 |
| Average | $16 | 19 | -3 | $23 |
From a player-by-player standpoint, 2010 was a little bit better than 2011. Byrd, Davis, and Scutaro all earned more in 2010 than they were paid. But it does seem like the market was right to discount these players; only Byrd and Davis earned more in 2010 than they did in 2009.
The 2009 bargains for the National League perform somewhat better...
Top 10 Profits 2009 A.L. Hitters in 2010
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | 2009 |
| 1 | Michael Bourn | $26 | 21 | 5 | $33 |
| 2 | Nyjer Morgan | $16 | 21 | -5 | $27 |
| 3 | Mark Reynolds | $15 | 30 | -15 | $33 |
| 4 | Andrew McCutchen | $29 | 24 | 5 | $22 |
| 5 | Matt Diaz | $6 | 5 | 2 | $20 |
| 6 | Dexter Fowler | $13 | 16 | -3 | $17 |
| 7 | Todd Helton | $8 | 15 | -8 | $24 |
| 8 | Carlos Gonzalez | $45 | 21 | 24 | $16 |
| 9 | Martin Prado | $24 | 15 | 9 | $16 |
| 10 | Pablo Sandoval | $14 | $32 | -18 | $29 |
| Average | $20 | 20 | 0 | $24 |
...but only relative to what they were paid. They still lose $4 per player from what they earned in 2009. Take Cargo out of here and you've got about the same losses per player that you do in the other three groupings.
So what does this mean in terms of Frenchy, Melky Cabrera, Emilio Bonifacio, Alex Gordon (wow, there were a lot of Royals on this list last year) in 2012?
First and foremost, keep in mind that every player is an individual case, not simply part of an aggregate "this proves everything!" data model. Even without the benefit of hindsight, I would have thought that giving McCutchen a raise and Helton a pay cut in 2010 were both good ideas.
Taken on the whole, though, these lists mostly back up a lot of the conventional wisdom that experienced Roto players take for granted. Rookies or young players who emerge as bargains are generally going to continue to develop and earn even more as they close in on their peaks. Be wary of veterans who suddenly came out of nowhere repeating the following year. The older the player, the more wary you should be that he’s going to repeat
The market gives these players pay cuts across the board, but the market is right for the most part…and probably should be even more conservative than it is. Getting back to Francoeur does this mean that you should pay him the $13 he earned in 2010. No, but you definitely don’t want to pay him the $27 he earned in 2011 either. History illustrates that it’s extremely likely that Francoeur isn’t going to replicate his career year.
1 comment:
The thing I like about Frenchy is that he can regress a decent amount from last year and still make a profit on what he'll cost in a lot of leagues. YMMV, obviously. But I think he's a guy some experts are outsmarting themselves on.
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