As I talked about earlier this winter, there has been a lot of speculation about what impact there will be in A.L. and N.L.-only leagues because of the exodus of top-tier hitting talent to the American League. My argument is that there won't be much of an impact at all in either direction.
Do hitting and pitching values ever shift radically in one direction or the other from season to season? Yes, but it's extremely rare.
In 1993, Major League Baseball expanded from 26 to 28 teams. It was the first time since 1977 that Major League Baseball had expanded and the first time expansion had happened while Rotisserie League Baseball existed. Conventional wisdom suspected that the pitchers were going to take it on the chin, but few actually predicted the radical degree of the impact.
N.L. Team Averages 1992: 105 HR, 588 RBI, 130 SB. .252 BA, 3.50 ERA, 1.287 WHIP
N.L. Team Averages 1993: 140 HR, 681 RBI, 122 SB, .264 BA, 4.04 ERA, 1.357 WHIP
A.L. Team Averages 1992: 127 HR, 659 RBI, 122 SB, .259 BA, 3.94 ERA, 1.363 WHIP
A.L. Team Averages 1993: 148 HR, 719 RBI, 111 SB, .267 BA, 4.32 ERA. 1.418 WHIP
Forget about the impact of losing Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. The offensive jump in the National League in 1993 was the equivalent of each team picking up a 35 HR, 93 RBI hitter. The jump was not quite as radical in the American League, but each team there added a 21 HR, 60 RBI hitter.
What kind of impact did this have on player values in 1993?
Top 10 N.L. Hitters, 1993 (4x4)
Player
|
$
|
92$
|
$56
|
$65
| |
Gregg Jefferies
|
$45
|
$49
|
Marquis Grissom
|
$43
|
$48
|
Ron Gant
|
$38
|
$46
|
$37
|
$45
| |
Andres Galarraga
|
$37
|
$43
|
Lenny Dykstra
|
$36
|
$40
|
$35
|
$42
| |
$33
|
$42
| |
Fred McGriff
|
$33
|
$41
|
A $50+ season is amazing enough. But if Bonds had put his 1993 numbers (539 AB, 46 HR, 123 RBI, 29 SB, .336 BA) up in 1992's weaker hitting context, he would have had a historical season.
All of the other hitters here also saw a bump. But since Bonds was the best HR/RBI hitter in 1993, the difference between his 1993 earnings and what he would have earned in 1992 is most dramatic. Stolen bases dropped in 1993, but because of the significant difference in batting average from 1992 to 1993, even the one-dimensional speed demons would have done a little better in 1992's context. Chuck Carr (4/41/58/.267) jumps from $26 to $28 while Otis Nixon (1/24/47/.269) went from $19 to $20.
Because the American League's offensive burst wasn't as dramatic in 1993, the stolen base drop had a far more dramatic impact on how the deck gets shuffled from one year to the next.
Top 10 A.L. Hitters, 1993 (4x4)
Player
|
$
|
92$
|
Roberto Alomar
|
$51
|
$50
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
$45
|
$49
|
$45
|
$44
| |
Paul Molitor
|
$44
|
$46
|
Albert Belle
|
$43
|
$46
|
$41
|
$45
| |
Rafael Palmeiro
|
$41
|
$44
|
$41
|
$44
| |
Rickey Henderson
|
$40
|
$41
|
John Olerud
|
$39
|
$41
|
Four dollar differences for Thomas and Griffey aren't trivial...but they pale in comparison to the wild contextual swings in the National League. And the speed difference here actually leads to a couple of overall pay cuts, as both Alomar and Lofton's 1993 seasons were actually worth more in the context of 1993 than in the context of 1992.
This is an engaging history lesson (well, at least I'm enjoying it), but what does this have to do with 2012?
It's understandable that the offensive talent shift from the National League to the American League this winter has owners wondering what's going to happen to hitter values this year. But as history shows, there has to be an extremely radical change in league context in order for this to happen. A few free agents moving in one direction or the other might lead to some incremental changes, but odds are poor that the impact on Rotisserie values will be all that significant.
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