2011 BBA N.L. Stan Musial (MVP) Award

The race for the National League Stan Musial (Most Valuable Player) award is an intriguing one.  There are no pitchers to consider (perhaps Justin Verlander is in the Top 10 in the American League?).  One of the contenders will be a Brewer for life (Ryan Braun), while another may not be a Brewer in the next month (Prince Fielder).  One nearly got ran out of town last year (Matt Kemp), while another called out a free agent suitor as a flash in the pan, and now faces them in the World Series (Lance Berkman).  If two stayed healthy, they might be in the conversation as well (Jose Reyes and Albert Pujols).  And in the mix is the reigning MVP, though he falls short in this year’s contest.

What better place to start this discussion than with WAR:

Baseball-Reference  Fangraphs

Kemp	10.0	Kemp	8.7
Braun	7.7	Braun	7.8
Votto	6.5	Votto	6.9
Sandoval	6.1	Upton	6.4
Tulowitzki	5.8	Tulowitzki	6.3
Reyes	5.8	Reyes	6.2
Stanton	5.7	Phillips	6.0
McCutchen	5.5	Victorino	5.9
Pujols	5.4	McCutchen	5.7
Berkman	5.2	Fielder	5.5
Fielder	5.2	Pujols	5.1
Pence	5.2	Holliday	5.0

There are obvious differences between these two WAR numbers; defensive metrics certainly play a part.  Two things do not change, however: Kemp and Braun at the top of the heap, and by a lot.  In fact, the gaps between Kemp and Braun and Braun and the rest of the pack are, well, statistically significant for lack of a better phrase.

So, if it is a two-man race for the top spot, let’s take a closer look at these numbers.  First, let’s take a look at some traditional numbers

	HR	RBI	SB	R	AVE
Kemp	35	126	40	115	.324
Braun	33	111	33	109	.332

The “traditional” numbers certainly seem to give Kemp an edge, though a small edge.  What happens if we go a little deeper?

	OPS	OPS+	TB	RC	wRC	wOBA
Kemp	.994	171	353	131	171	.419
Braun	.996	166	336	138	179	.433

These less traditional numbers appear to favor Braun slightly, though the adjusted OPS favors Kemp slightly.  Just to add to some of the numbers, Braun leads Kemp in Win Probability Added (WPA), Situational Wins Added, and Offensive Win Percentage, while Kemp leads Braun in Adjusted Batting Runs, Adjusted Batting Wins, and Base-Out Wins Added.

The more and more I look, this is a dead heat between Kemp and Braun aside from the WAR number.  So then I need to pose this question: is Kemp penalized for not playing a meaningful game since Opening Day?  The answer is yes, but not as much as you think.

Kemp led his team in WAR (I will use Fangraphs for now, since I am on its page) by 5.8 points; Andre Ethier and James Loney were the next leading WAR generators at 2.9 and 2.3 respectively.   Despite a terrible lineup, the Dodgers finished 3 games over .500, and the reason is Matt Kemp.  Braun, on the other hand, only led teammate Prince Fielder in WAR by 2.3 points.  Moreover, 5 Brewers generated WAR over 2.9 (Braun, Fielder, Corey Hart, Nyjer Morgan and Richie Weeks).

Moreover, there is certainly a ball-park differential here.  Braun’s power numbers were relatively consistent between home and the road, but his RBI totals and his average were significantly better at home (+17 and +.036).  Here is the amazing part: Kemp’s numbers were almost identical at home and on the road.  Playing in The Ravine, San Diego and San Francisco on a consistent basis, and Kemp put up these splits:

Home	19	57	63	.329
Away	20	58	63	.319

In this close race, I have to lean to Kemp; congratulations to both Kemp and Braun on an excellent year.

The ballot looks like this:

1.         Matt Kemp

2.         Ryan Braun

3.         Prince Fielder

4.         Lance Berkman

5.         Jose Reyes

6.         Joey Votto

7.         Justin Upton

8.         Troy Tulowitzki

9.         Albert Pujols

10.       Hunter Pence

Just a couple of quick notes here.  Matt Holliday would likely have made this list if he had more plate appearances; he had a good overall season.  Fielder finished between second and fourth in about every significant offensive category, with just a few exceptions.  He and Braun needed to be that good, of course, as Casey McGehee and Yunesky Betancourt were that bad (in the bottom three of those same offensive categories).

Upton in the seven slot surprises me.  Based on his season and based on the Diamondbacks making the playoffs, I would have thought he would finish higher.  I did not credit him significantly for his defense (which I like should have done); if someone has a complaint about him being lower than Berkman, Reyes, or Votto, I will be happy to explain at greater length in another post.  Pence in the final slot also surprised me a bit.  He is a very under-rated player, as he is in the top 10 of a number of categories.  He has an offensive WAR of 5, and that is good for eighth in the National League.

If you have any specific questions, or would like a more thorough analysis of the second-tier of the ballot, please drop me a line.