2011 BBA National League Walter Johnson (Cy Young) Award

The Walter Johnson Award goes to the National League’s best pitcher.  Unlike the American league, there is quite a debate brewing over the winner of this award.  Let’s get right to the analysis.

Name	W	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Halladay	19	233.2	8.47	1.35	0.39	2.35	2.20	2.71
Kershaw	21	233.1	9.57	2.08	0.58	2.28	2.47	2.84
Lee	17	232.2	9.21	1.62	0.70	2.40	2.60	2.68
Bumgarner	13	204.2	8.40	2.02	0.53	3.21	2.67	3.10
Cain	12	221.2	7.27	2.56	0.37	2.88	2.91	3.78
Garza	10	198.0	8.95	2.86	0.64	3.32	2.95	3.19
Kennedy	21	222.0	8.03	2.23	0.77	2.88	3.22	3.50
Carpenter	11	237.1	7.24	2.09	0.61	3.45	3.06	3.31
Hamels	14	216.0	8.08	1.83	0.79	2.79	3.05	3.02
D. Hudson	16	222.0	6.85	2.03	0.69	3.49	3.28	3.79
Lincecum	13	217.0	9.12	3.57	0.62	2.74	3.17	3.36

Fangraphs WAR:

Name	WAR
Halladay	8.2
Kershaw	6.8
Lee	6.7
Bumgarner	5.5
Cain	5.2
Garza	5.0
Kennedy	5.0
Carpenter	5.0
Hamels	4.9
D. Hudson	4.9
Lincecum	4.4

Baseball Reference WAR:

Halladay (PHI)	7.4
Kershaw (LAD)	6.9
Lee (PHI)	6.8
Kennedy (ARI)	5.5
Hamels (PHI)	5.4
Dickey (NYM)	4.9
Lincecum (SFG)	4.4
Cueto (CIN)	4.3
Chacin (COL)	4.3
Cain (SFG)	3.9

I’ll have more stats for you below, but this is a good start.  Why so many stats?  To demonstrate a simple point – with all due respect to Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Ian Kennedy and Madison Bumgarner, this is a debate involving two pitchers and two pitchers only: Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw.

For the past several weeks, both analysts and casual fans tout Kershaw and the “Pitching Triple Crown”: wins, earned run average and strikeouts.  This is certainly a compelling achievement, though I think we need to look a little more closely at this achievement.  The pitching triple crown is certainly more common than the hitting triple crown.  In fact, it has been done five times in the last ten years (including Kershaw and Justin Verlander this year).  So, it is not as though we are talking about the hitting Triple Crown, which, as we know, has not been won since 1967.  Further, and taking nothing away from Kershaw, these categories were very close:  Kershaw tied for the league lead in wins, won ERA by .07 and won strikeouts by 10.

In sitting down and looking at Halladay versus Kershaw, I looked at another Pitching Triple Crown analysis: K/9, BB/9 and HR/9, categories over which a pitcher actually demonstrates control (thank you Voros McCracken).  Kershaw wins the K/9 category, 9.57 to 9.21 over Cliff Lee; Halladay is well behind at 8.47.  Halladay, however, finishes well ahead of the pack in BB/9 (over, again, Cliff Lee).  Halladay also finished ahead of Kershaw in HR/9, finishing second overall just behind Matt Cain. Halladay also finished ahead of Kershaw in adjusted earned run average, adjusted pitching runs, adjusted pitching wins, base-out runs saved, wins probability added (finishing second behind Tyler Clippard), and base-out wins saved.  Halladay also has the superior FIP and xFIP.

One other determinative issue for me is ballpark factor.  Kershaw put up a 1.69 ERA at home and a 2.87 ERA on the road.  Halladay put up a 2.48 ERA at home and a 2.23 ERA on the road.  Now, there is no question that Citizens Bank Park’s reputation as a band box is overstated; nonetheless, it is a significantly more hitter friendly park than the Ravine.  Nine of Kershaw’s starts were against the Giants and Padres.

In the end, looking at everything in its totality, Halladay edges Kershaw here.  

Taking a look at the statistics, note Cliff Lee had a very good year himself.  In fact, a number of analysts on the sabermetric side argue that Lee should finish ahead of Kershaw.  You certainly will not hear that argument from me, as Kershaw is ahead of Lee in most categories.  Nonetheless, the WAR is much closer than expected looking at the surface numbers. Lee is a distant third, but not as distant as I thought at first.

The race for fourth and fifth place in this voting is anti-climatic given the strong race for the top spot.  Cole Hamels had the best year of his career this year, and certainly deserves the spot directly behind Lee.  His 3.02 xFIP is fifth in the league, going hand in hand with his fifth-best ERA.  While Madison Bumgarner only won 13 games this season, he posted excellent interiors, posting the sixth-best K/9, eighth-best K/9, fourth-best HR/9 and sixth-best xFIP.  While Ian Kennedy tied for the league lead in wins and put up a 2.88 ERA in Arizona, his interior lag a bit behind (15^th in K/9, 14^th in BB/9, 21^st in HR/9 and 14^th in xFIP.  He certainly pitched in a more difficult park, but, as a general proposition, his metrics suggest more luck than good.  As a result, I edge Bumgarner over Kennedy despite the more favorable park.

The vote: 1) Halladay; 2) Kershaw; 3) Lee; 4) Hamels; 5) Bumgarner