Monday, March 28, 2011

Specific Questions about Contracts

eddiehawkins is getting ready to freeze his team and had some specific questions about his players.

Back in late February, I put a general piece up about contracts and when it is and isn't a good idea to dole them out. What I'll do below is run through the players eddie listed and briefly run through what my thought process would be on each player.

Freddie Freeman $2: The carry-over leagues I play in don't start the contact clock until after a player graces your active roster. As a result, I've never had a situation where I had to give a player like Freeman a contract who had all of 24 Major League at-bats. Bumping Freeman up to $7 would make sense, but if he crashes and burns in April and winds up in the minors all year you're taking a loss. It sounds implausible, but all I can think about is Chris Davis, Brandon Wood and a host of other can't miss prospects that failed. I'd give Freeman $7, but wouldn't feel great about it.

Colby Rasmus $5: He's relatively young, he's much more productive than this price reflects, and he's years away from free agency. $15/three years seems logical here.

Drew Stubbs $5: Stubbs probably isn't quite the baseball player that Rasmus is, but from a Rotisserie standpoint the speed makes him even more valuable. Ten dollars is the conservative call, $15 is the aggressive one. I'd go $15 based on his youth. I think because of the speed that high teens/low 20s is the floor here.

Tim Hudson $3: Based on performance, giving Hudson an $8/two-year deal seems like a no brainer. However, this is a case where I'd simply option Hudson out. He's 35 years old and isn't going to put up a 2.83 ERA again this year. More importantly, the age makes him someone who I don't think is a dump candidate in a keeper league. I generally avoid giving contracts to players that I don't think I'll be able to flip in a dump deal.

Ted Lilly $15: Lilly is a solid pitcher but he at best he is $3-5 under valued. He also fits the advanced age profile of Hudson. Lilly is a keep but he does not get a contract.

Randy Wells $2: I've noticed that Wells is becoming a popular bounce back candidate in fantasy circles this winter as he has a hot spring, which in turn has made people notice that his peripherals last year were decent. However, if you give Wells a contract the assumption is that he's worth at least a $12 bid. Wells might earn $13-15 this year, but as far as a bid limit goes I like him a lot more at $5-7 at best. Avoid giving players contracts that push them to a par price.

Randy Wolf $2: I'm wondering if Alex Patton siced you on me; his web site is the only place out there where I've seen prices that would make one believe that giving Wolf a contract is even a remotely good idea. Yes, he earned $24 in 2009 (in 5x5; the prices on the page I linked to are 4x4 values). However, that's the only great year in that salary scan. Keeping Wolf at $2 in the hopes that he might recapture that Barton Fink feel isn't a bad idea. Giving him a contract and upping him to $7 isn't.

So there you have my thought process at a glance. I'm typically conservative with contracts, and I'm particularly conservative with pitchers. Remember that while contracts do provide additional long-term value to your team if you're too generous you might take away too much value for your squad to competitive in the here and now.

2 comments:

eddiehawkins said...

In my defense, I did say "is Wolf even worth keeping" :)

Thanks for the advice! I may see if I can flip Freeman for someone of more reliable value.

Anonymous said...

Mike, do you have time to think about C. Santana at either 10 or 15, Valencia 7 or 12, Cano 24 or 29, Gio at 15, Borbon 7 or 12. I might extend them all except that I run into severe money problems (am going into auction to be in my very own small corner of the room, with a max 15 freeze list where by all assessments three teams will dominate the bidding with lots of money to spend - and in one case, a team vowing to buy 3 stars and punt in May for 2012.