NSH read my last post about long-term contract questions and had a few of his own:
Mike, do you have time to think about Carlos Santana at either 10 or 15, Danny Valencia 7 or 12, Robinson Cano 24 or 29, Gio Gonzalez at 15, Julio Borbon 7 or 12. I might extend them all except that I run into severe money problems (am going into auction to be in my very own small corner of the room, with a max 15 freeze list where by all assessments three teams will dominate the bidding with lots of money to spend - and in one case, a team vowing to buy 3 stars and punt in May for 2012.)
Based on the guidelines I posted in late February on contracts, I wouldn't give any of these players a long-term deal.
I don't think any of these players are at $5 or under their bid value. Santana and Gonzalez are the only players who are even close (and this is coming from someone who really loves Gonzalez). Although the Rangers have reversed course on Borbon and have said that he'll start, I wouldn't be surprised if David Murphy steals away some or all of his ABs. Valencia is a decent keep at $7; at $12 he's slightly undervalued and maybe not even that. Cano could very well be close to a +5, but I never like giving contracts to hitters that extend them past $25.
I wouldn't worry about money problems with this team. Instead, I'd think more about how good this team actually is. I don't know if this represents all of NSH's players, but if it does then he doesn't have a single player $5 under his bid price. Using the higher of LABR or Tout Wars' prices as a guide:
Carlos Santana. Salary $10, "Value" $19
Danny Valencia. $7/$13
Robinson Cano. $24/$35
Gio Gonzalez $15/$15
Julio Borbon $7/$11
Those five players wrap up $63 in salary and $93 in value. I don't know who else NSH has, but 20% inflation would end with a $257 team if he spent inflation par. Clearly, the goal is not to spend inflation par, but giving out contracts to this questionable group of players would be like throwing $25 of your value away at auction.
Unless NSH wants to also be playing for next year (like the team vowing to buy three stars and dump in April), I'd stay away from the contracts here.
4 comments:
Thanks. Long story short, something Les Leopold said while teasing about ADL restriction on number of freezes, combined with the Alex P. (from long ago books) advice to find your own corner of the auction, got me thinking and for better or worse, I decided to "buy" my team prior to the auction. Top FA in this keeper league will be Longoria, Tex, A Gonz, Hamilton, Haren, Soria, Liriano. As noted, three teams with tons of money and no clear freeze list winner. So, am going to freeze the max 15 (never have before). Santana 10, Wieters 10, Smoak 10 (iffy but he looks like he can hit), Butler 22, Cano 24, Valencia 2, Span 20, Borbon 2, BJ Upton 27, Gio 10, Cahill 2, Arrieta 2, Cecil (10 but likely swapped later tonight for Scherzer as that owner panics, 17). Oops, that's 14 because I just saw video of Papelbon dumping sliders in the dirt. He may get moved for Dice K 4 and two draft picks.
I'd bump Valencia and maybe Cano, on the theory that I want some players who can be kept for next year at reasonable prices as trade chips. If there are three teams with tons of money and who don't have strong freeze lists, they are unlikely to compete this year. You may be able to turn a Valencia into a Longoria come June, but not if Valencia can't be kept next year. But as always, you know your league best.
Mike G- Your search tool doesn't seem to work anymore. Can you please either post one of your old postings or give a reference date so that I can look over the method you use to compare how each team, in a given league, stands prior to the auction relative to freeze prices? Thanks much.
Hi Gypsy.
I'll post it later, but if you could try to give me more feedback on the problem you're having, I'll try to fix it.
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