Monday, March 14, 2011

Money Left on the Table

In all of my Rotisserie leagues, owners typically spend all of their money by the end of the auction. Once in a while, there's an owner with $3-7 left in his pocket, but generally speaking everyone spends his money.

But Frank is in a league where this just isn't the case.
I...have noticed that a significant amount of money is being left on the table every year (usually by the same handful of teams).... here is the four-year history of the unspent dollars:

2010: $55 unspent
2009: $82 unspent
2008: $86 unspent
2007: $55 unspent

I try hard to spend every dollar available to me, and in last year's auctions, I spent aggressively early because I assumed at least one of my opponents would have excess money available in the end game. Are there any other strategies I might use to exploit this situation? Should I adjust my bids?
I would recommend going back through your last three auctions and figuring out where the price points are dropping off compared to your projected prices on these players. With this much money left on the table at the end, it isn't enough to simply swoop in early, buy a bunch of players who are $1-2 under your sheet value, and wait for the end game. This could work depending on your league's exact price points, but I would make absolutely sure that your assumption is correct.

It is also possible that this is a linear progression and not a phenomenon that is happening at the beginning, middle, or end of Frank's auction. Eighty-six dollars left is a lot of money for a league to leave on the table. However, if this is simply happening across the board, then even in a freeze auction you're talking about an average dip in price of $1 per player. If this is the case, simply go out and have a value auction. Try to get players for $2 under your bid price and don't get cute. Your team will have value, and it's not your problem if everyone else leaves money on the table.

The final piece of advice I can offer is an auction like this can offer you an opportunity to shore up a category where you are weak. If you need a second closer and you know that owners aren't going to spend, then it's OK to go $1-2 over your sheet price and buy that closer. As I said above, the bargains will come later, and there should be more than enough value to go around so that you'll make up for overpaying for that closer on the back end of your auction.

1 comment:

Paul said...

I had this happen to me for the first time ever last year. I think I left my draft with about $10 unspent.

How did it happen? My league has gone SO hitting crazy, that all the bargains were left on the pitching side. I think I had about $25 with about 5 pitchers to get, which I thought was great in that it would give me the flexibility to nab the 2-3 guys I really wanted (at approximately $6-$8 each) and then fill in with the usual $1 end-gamers.

The problem is the guys I wanted just weren't bid on. Kris Medlen went for $2. Jon Sanchez went for $3. Brett Myers went for $5. When Todd Coffey and Brandon Lyon went for $1-$2 each, I was stuck with money.

It all worked out in that I rationalized that they were worth more than the $15 total I spent, but it still was an odd feeling.

Sometimes, the dynamic of the draft is so extreme, that you just can't take full advantage of it.

And considering the list of hitting busts that I wound up with last year (McLouth, Sandoval, Matsui, Blanks, Kennedy, Berkman...), it would have been nice to upgrade some of those spots but who knew?