Rotoman wrote an article in this year's Fantasy Baseball Guide about de-valuing batting average. Gypsy Soul wonders whether or not this could work.
I'm referring to the article that Peter wrote in the FBG re: discounting BA in order to ensure more ABs. If one buys this as a valid strategy, the end result, of course, would be adding value to the low BA guys in one's price list at the expense of those whose prices are more driven by their positive BAs. In his list of players who would gain the most if you don’t count BA, what percent of these gains would you guess would be added on in pricing such players?
One good way to see whether or not this would work is to look back at some of the best and worst batting average players from 2009 and see how these players did in 2010.
10 Worst A.L. BA Hitters 2009
| | 2009 Bottom 10 | '09 BA | '09 BA $ | '09 $ | '09 Sal | '10 BA | '10 BA $ | '10 $ | '10 Sal | +/- | | | |
| 1 | Jason Varitek | .209 | -$6 | $4 | $2 | .232 | -$1 | $4 | $1 | +3 | | | |
| 2 | Brandon Inge | .230 | -$6 | $12 | $8 | .247 | -$2 | $11 | $7 | +4 | | | |
| 3 | Ken Griffey Jr. | .215 | -$6 | $6 | $5 | .184 | -$2 | -$1 | $1 | -2 | | | |
| 4 | Jason Giambi | .193 | -$5 | $3 | $13 | .244 | -$1 | $5 | | | | | |
| 5 | Pat Burrell | .221 | -$5 | $6 | $19 | .250 | -$8 | $13 | $4 | +9 | | | |
| 6 | Carlos Pena | .227 | -$5 | $18 | $22 | .196 | -$8 | $12 | $25 | -13 | | | |
| 7 | Ronny Cedeno | .167 | -$5 | -$1 | $1 | .256 | -$1 | $11 | $3 | +8 | | | |
| 8 | Dioner Navarro | .218 | -$5 | $3 | $10 | .194 | -$2 | -$1 | $4 | -4 | | | |
| 9 | Rod Barajas | .226 | -$5 | $8 | $3 | .240 | -$2 | $9 | $3 | +7 | | | |
| 10 | Gerald Laird | .225 | -$5 | $3 | $6 | .207 | -$4 | $2 | $3 | -1 | | | |
| | average | .217 | -$5 | $6 | $9 | .231 | -$3 | $7 | $5 | +1 | | | |
These were the 10 worst batting average hitters in the American League in 2009. The columns above reflect what these guys did in 2009, what they earned in batting average that year, and what they did overall. The columns to the right reflect what they did in 2010.
This chart is skewed because a lot of these guys aren't full timers yet make the list. Varitek only had 364 AB in 2009, but did more damage to an American League Roto team's batting average than any other hitter. The full timers here are limited; only Inge, Burrell, and Pena carry over as regulars or mostly regulars from season to season.
There is profit to be had here in 2010, but barely. Granted, the $13 loss on Pena hurts the group quite a bit. But Inge, Burrell (if his N.L. stats counted for you), and Barajas are the only hitters here who can be considered significant winners. If you stuck Giambi on your reserve list, put him on your active roster and then sat through the drip, you made $5.
One problem here is that bad batting average makes playing time harder to come by the following year. Laird had to fight Alex Avila for a job in 2010 and most of these other guys weren't sure things to play in 2010. The end game plays here are fine, but there's no way you can build your team around these players.
The story in the National League is much different.
10 Worst N.L. BA Hitters 2009
| | 2009 Bottom 10 | '09 BA | '09 BA $ | '09 $ | '09 Sal | '10 BA | '10 BA $ | '10 $ | '10 Sal | +/- | | | |
| 1 | Chris Young | .213 | -$6 | $9 | $23 | .257 | -$1 | $29 | $12 | +17 | | | |
| 2 | Brian Giles | .191 | -$5 | -$1 | $7 | | | | | | | | |
| 3 | Ian Stewart | .228 | -$4 | $15 | $10 | .256 | -$1 | $14 | $20 | -5 | | | |
| 4 | Geovany Soto | .218 | -$4 | $4 | $23 | .280 | $1 | $13 | $13 | +1 | | | |
| 5 | J.J. Hardy | .230 | -$4 | $6 | $20 | .268 | $0 | $8 | $13 | -5 | | | |
| 6 | Jay Bruce | .223 | -$4 | $11 | $23 | .281 | $2 | $22 | $21 | +1 | | | |
| 7 | Garrett Atkins | .226 | -$4 | $5 | $22 | .214 | -$2 | -$1 | $12 | -13 | | | |
| 8 | Paul Janish | .211 | -$4 | $1 | | .260 | -$0 | $5 | | | | | |
| 9 | Bill Hall | .201 | -$4 | $2 | $3 | .247 | -$2 | $13 | $1 | +12 | | | |
| 10 | Alex Gonzalez | .210 | -$4 | $0 | $2 | .250 | -$2 | $17 | $3 | +13 | | | |
| | average | .217 | -$4 | $5 | $13 | .260 | -$1 | $12 | $10 | +2 | | | |
This list is dominated by every day players and many of them found regular playing time again in 2010. The result is that the law of averages (sorry) works in their favor and their collective batting average jumps 43 points. In an N.L. Roto league, that means a slight BA loss but even the worst BA hitters here could easily be offset by other contributors on your team.
Gonzalez, Hall and Young are all great examples of what Rotoman discussed in his article. Rolling the die on a low BA player paid in all three cases. As a group, though, this wasn't a very profitable place to take risks. A $2 profit per player is good, but it's not going to win you most leagues.
Some of that is the nature of these players. They're younger and have far more upside than their A.L. counterparts. Enough owners wanted to take a stab at Bruce and Soto that their potential profit all but disappeared. These hitters bounced back quite a bit from their 2009 earnings, but the market is betting on this so the benefit is muted.
10 Best A.L. BA Hitters 2009
| | 2009 Top 10 | '09 BA | '09 BA $ | '09 $ | '09 Sal | '10 BA | '10 BA $ | '10 $ | '10 Sal | +/- | | | |
| 1 | Ichiro Suzuki | .352 | $12 | $31 | $30 | .315 | $8 | $31 | $27 | +3 | | | |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | .365 | $12 | $32 | $20 | .327 | $8 | $23 | $35 | -12 | | | |
| 3 | Derek Jeter | .334 | $10 | $34 | $23 | .270 | $1 | $22 | $27 | -5 | | | |
| 4 | Miguel Cabrera | .324 | $8 | $31 | $38 | .328 | $8 | $38 | $37 | 0 | | | |
| 5 | Robinson Cano | .320 | $7 | $27 | $20 | .319 | $8 | $33 | $28 | +5 | | | |
| 6 | Michael Young | .322 | $7 | $24 | $19 | .284 | $3 | $24 | $21 | +4 | | | |
| 7 | Jason Bartlett | .320 | $6 | $28 | $12 | .254 | -$1 | $12 | $20 | -8 | | | |
| 8 | Denard Span | .311 | $6 | $25 | $17 | .264 | $0 | $19 | $22 | -3 | | | |
| 9 | Erick Aybar | .312 | $5 | $19 | $5 | .253 | -$1 | $14 | $14 | -1 | | | |
| 10 | Carl Crawford | .305 | $5 | $36 | $36 | .307 | $6 | $40 | $34 | +6 | | | |
| | average | .327 | $8 | $29 | $22 | .293 | $4 | $26 | $27 | -1 | | | |
The best A.L. BA guys in 2009 indeed slipped in 2010. But they didn't slip all that much. A $3 drop per player from 2009 to 2010 isn't much when you consider the variability we usually see from season to season.
This team also would have won the Rotisserie batting title in just about any Roto league. Of course, you can't pay $270 for 10 hitters unless you're cheating, so you have to hope you picked the right hitters. Chasing Aybar, Jeter and Span for BA last year would have stung, but half of the hitters here hit .300 again in 2010.
The more important factor here is that the biggest earners here aren't one-trick BA hitters. They all bring something else to the table, so that even if teams are discounting for batting average, they shouldn't put up too much of a discount.
10 Best N.L. BA Hitters 2009
| | 2009 Top 10 | '09 BA | '09 BA $ | '09 $ | '09 Sal | '10 BA | '10 BA $ | '10 $ | '10 Sal | +/- | | | |
| 1 | Hanley Ramirez | .342 | $10 | $41 | $46 | .300 | $5 | $33 | $44 | -11 | | | |
| 2 | Pablo Sandoval | .330 | $8 | $29 | $16 | .268 | $0 | $14 | $32 | -18 | | | |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | .328 | $8 | $45 | $42 | .312 | $7 | $40 | $44 | -3 | | | |
| 4 | Ryan Braun | .320 | $8 | $40 | $41 | .304 | $6 | $33 | $41 | -8 | | | |
| 5 | Todd Helton | .325 | $7 | $24 | $10 | .256 | -$1 | $8 | $15 | -8 | | | |
| 6 | Miguel Tejada | .313 | $7 | $25 | $12 | .269 | $1 | $16 | $16 | 0 | | | |
| 7 | Chris Coghlan | .321 | $6 | $21 | | .268 | $0 | $12 | $16 | -4 | | | |
| 8 | Joey Votto | .322 | $6 | $26 | $27 | .324 | $8 | $40 | $31 | +9 | | | |
| 9 | Felipe Lopez | .310 | $6 | $21 | $15 | .233 | -$3 | $8 | $6 | +3 | | | |
| 10 | Matt Holliday | .353 | $5 | $16 | | .312 | $7 | $32 | $34 | -1 | | | |
| | average | .325 | $7 | $29 | $26 | .288 | $3 | $24 | $28 | -3 | | | |
The story is similar in the National League. These hitters take a loss as a group and their batting average drops, but a .288 batting average is still very strong in an N.L.-only league context. There are more hitters here whose averages crashed and burned, but these guys are still very, very good.
I do agree with Rotoman's point that batting averages vary from year to year. Don't pay for Josh Hamilton's .359 batting average this year. You will almost definitely get burned. But do remember that good batting average hitters are generally good hitters while bad batting average hitters generally are not. If your goal is to target at bats, remember that strong batting average hitters are more likely to maintain their playing time while weaker BA hitters are more likely to lose theirs. Carlos Pena and his sub-.200 BA is the exception and not the rule. I don't like dumping batting average primarily because it puts your team's playing time - and your team's ability to generate the AB that generate stats - at risk.
1 comment:
Just to be clear, my story was about leaving BA out of the value calculations for hitters in 5x5. Avoiding expected high BA players makes it cheaper to accumulate the counting stats by staying away from players with high BA expectations, and doesn't necessarily result in dumping a category.
This isn't a secret way to win, but rather another way to look at values and find a way to disrupt those of the people you're playing against.
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