CBS Expert Analyst NL-Only 5x5 Results - Outfield Part III

The Best of the Rest: Ben Francisco ($9), Marlon Byrd ($9), Cameron Maybin ($9), Bill Hall ($9), Xavier Nady ($9)

The bid on Francisco assumes that he plays more than half-time.  If he gets near 450 at-bats, he should easily out-earn this number.  With Ibanez’ age and Brown’s struggles, this is looking more likely.  Byrd, as usual, is a bargain (a couple of years running in CBS now) – he earned $20 in NL 5x5 last year, and seems a lock to earn at least $5-$6 in profit.  Perhaps Maybin does not belong in this group.  Maybin actually struck out less on a pro rata basis in 2010 than in 2009.  His minor league career does not show the huge strikeout line, so it is not unreasonable to expect 10-15 homers and 25 steals.  On the flip side, he could be in the minors in May.  Hall is being paid like a second baseman here, and Nady is being paid as though he’ll get 450 AB (I’ll take the under with the reports on his elbow so far).

The Discount Shop: Raul Ibanez ($7), Tyler Colvin ($7), Ryan Ludwick ($6), Pat Burrell ($6), Cody Ross ($5), Will Venable ($4), Brandon Allen ($4), Jonny Gomes ($4), Kyle Blanks ($4), Mike Morse ($4), Roger Bernadina ($3), Carlos Gomez ($3), Emilio Bonifacio ($3)

Ibanez is in what amounts to the last year of his career, at least in the National League.  He has that 50 game streak every year that will, once again, put him in position to earn a profit.  Colvin’s price assumes he finds 300 at-bats.  If the Cubs are going for it, can they possibly cut Pena and put Colvin at first base?  Will they tire of Fukudome?  Ludwick did not like the move to his new park last year?  Look again – his OPS at Petco was .115 higher than on the road.  If he gets back to hitting on the road, Ludwick will be a bargain at this price.  Burrell earned $14 last year; no reason to think, even with less at-bats, he won’t earn $15.  If Ross plays, he is a bargain; he should get enough at-bats to warrant a bid about 3x this one here.  Venable, well, no one likes the guy.  Blanks isn’t ready and Tate is over a year away.  Venable plays and he earns close to $30 – you can come back and see how right I was at the end of the year.  Allen needs to find a place to play, but, when you auction in February, he needs a bid and this is the right one.  Gomes will get at-bats and is a good value play at $4.  Morse will easily out-earn his bid here; with Bernadina as a good regression candidate, count on Morse to earn into the teens.  If he gets traded to Philadelphia, count on perhaps more.  Gomez runs a lot, but he cannot steal first base; he could be in the minors by late May.  Bonifacio is a nice hedge – he plays a lot of positions, and can steal a lot of bases.  Nice play at $1.

The Dollar Store: Mark DeRosa ($2), Gerardo Parra ($2), Kosuke Fukudome ($2), Ryan Spilborghs ($2), Fred Lewis ($2), Scott Podsednik ($2), Matt Diaz ($1), John Jay ($1), Tony Gwynn ($1), Marcus Thames ($1), Eric Hinske ($1), Scott Hairston ($1), Aaron Rowand ($1), Chris Heisey ($1), Todd Frazier ($1)

Unlike the group above, this group of players is all about risk.  Spilborghs is almost guaranteed profit at $2; every year he does the same thing in that outfield.  Podsednik has plantar fascitis.  Thames went to the wrong team; he can hit in LA I’m sure, but where do the at-bats come from?  The same goes for TG Jr.  Diaz may be the other good bet for value out of this group, as he has been able to earn in limited at-bats.

It is always interesting to look at CBS auctions in a larger context.  For the bargains that are usually available, the real bargains appear to be in that upper single-digit tier, along with some in the upper-teens.  The $1 bag is not ripe with value, and if you held your money too long waiting to reach into this bag, you walked away disappointed.