Blair liked my post comparing the three expert leagues, but asked if it would be possible if I could provide an earnings column as well.
I'm only too happy to oblige.
2010 A.L. Expert League Bids: Hitters
| | CBS | LABR | TW | $ | |
| Tier #1 | $447 | $394 | $377 | $400 | |
| Tier #2 | $351 | $311 | $307 | $309 | |
| Tier #3 | $300 | $273 | $277 | $268 | |
| Tier #4 | $243 | $233 | $248 | $230 | |
| Tier #5 | $200 | $197 | $204 | $200 | |
| Tier #6 | $168 | $179 | $178 | $171 | |
| Tier #7 | $132 | $154 | $156 | $150 | |
| Tier #8 | $101 | $129 | $138 | $133 | |
| Tier #9 | $69 | $95 | $119 | $100 | |
| Tier #10 | $55 | $69 | $79 | $72 | |
| Tier #11 | $41 | $45 | $45 | $48 | |
| Tier #12 | $27 | $32 | $29 | $23 | |
| Tier #13 | $14 | $20 | $15 | $3 | |
| Tier #14 | $12 | $12 | $12 | -$11 | |
| Totals | $2,160 | $2,143 | $2,184 | $2,095 | |
The earnings are not tied to the bid columns, but rather ranked the same way the bid columns are. For Tier #1, for example, each column has the 12 most expensive hitters in the CBS, LABR and Tout leagues, and the $ column has the 12 highest earners. In other words, this is not an attempt to show how well the touts did in predicting the best hitters, but how the touts spent money relative to what players actually can earn.
Right away, you'll notice that the $ column total doesn't equal any of the league totals. This is theoretically incorrect if you're using Rotisserie League averages, as I am. If a league spends $2,160 on hitters, it earns $2,160 on hitters. $2,100 (not $2,095) is the number that's used in a 12-team A.L. assuming that each team will spend $175 on their hitters.
In any event, we can still see that the CBS league spends more on the top hitters than they can possibly earn, while the Tout Warriors are perhaps a little too conservative. And the dollar column confirms that CBS is spending too little from Tiers 7-10, regardless of the actual results. If you pick your spots in a CBS auction, there are bargains to be had in the mid-tier and later rounds.
2010 A.L. Expert League Bids: Pitchers
| | CBS | LABR | TW | $ | |
| Tier #1 | $302 | $298 | $287 | $317 | |
| Tier #2 | $218 | $197 | $203 | $222 | |
| Tier #3 | $154 | $160 | $149 | $177 | |
| Tier #4 | $102 | $123 | $100 | $138 | |
| Tier #5 | $71 | $78 | $73 | $106 | |
| Tier #6 | $41 | $47 | $45 | $61 | |
| Tier #7 | $27 | $35 | $31 | $31 | |
| Tier #8 | $15 | $20 | $18 | $6 | |
| Tier #9 | $12 | $12 | $12 | -$42 | |
| Totals | $942 | $970 | $918 | $1,018 | |
As I mentioned in my post without the dollar values, there is less variability in the pitching salaries versus earnings. LABR comes a little bit closer to matching what the pitchers earn with their spending, but since I didn't adjust the earnings for specific league spending, this isn't necessarily true. The $918 the Tout Wars crowd spent on pitching means that - theoretically at least - that the $ column should be shaved by about 10% to make the earnings match the valuation.
One thing no league can do is make negative bids. This has less of an impact on the hitters, but as you can see there are a lot of negative pitchers. Since each league can only stop at $1 (and not $0 or less), each league has to decide how to allocate that money at the middle and at the top. Over the years, the experts have been less likely to move that money into mid-tier and upper-tier pitching and more likely to move that money into hitting.
1 comment:
This is interesting, but fails to take the time of the auction into account. An auction held in early February, which is when the CBS one is held, will feature lots of uncertainty regarding playing time of the lesser players, particularly with regard to the end-of-auction hitters; there will be a little less uncertainty 5 weeks later when the LABR league one is held, and much less uncertainty come late March when the Touts sit down. The greater the uncertainty, the more dollars will flow upward, because there is less certainty of return on investment at end of the auction. The earlier an auction is held, the more appropriate a “stars and scrubs” approach is if your object is to win; the auction results, however, are less useful as a barometer of what players will go for 6 to 8 weeks later, when most auctions are held.
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