Sabathia vs. Anderson

Pitchers and catchers haven't even reported yet, but it's never too early to begin thinking about keepers.

A.L 5x5 keeper league, my SPs are (John) Danks $12, Clay Buchholz $20 and Brett Anderson $20(or $15 depending on how long want to keep them), (Dallas) Braden $8 and (Joel) Pineiro $3. Pretty good, right?
 

My good buddy and constant source of creative ideas thinks I should try and deal Anderson for someone like (C.C.) Sabathia at $32. I don't really agree but curious about your thoughts.

Based on the way the question is phrased, I'm assuming that you really like Anderson. A $15 contract for a pitcher is a pretty hearty endorsement; given the injury risk, I'd only go $20 on a long-term deal to an elite talent like Felix Hernandez or Jon Lester.

I'd probably be inclined to keep Anderson at $15 over CC at $32. However, it might depend on some other factors not listed here:

1) Are you a contender this year?

If so, you might want to grab the proven $25-30 starter over the guy whose ceiling might be $25 but who hasn't even broken $20 in earnings in his career. Anderson could have that breakout year this year. He also might have that year in 2012 or 2013. It also might never happen. CC, on the other hand, has already had more than one year at an elite level.

2) What's your inflation rate?

I've covered this ground a few times in the past. If your league has little to no inflation, you probably want to keep Anderson, and you might even consider throwing Sabathia back. If your league has moderate to high inflation, then Sabathia might suddenly be a useful hedge. If you think Sabathia's going to be a $28 pitcher this year and your league has a 30% inflation rate, he suddenly becomes the equivalent of a $36 pitcher at auction. Another way of looking at this is that the $17 difference in salary between a $32 Sabathia and a $15 Anderson will only buy $13 worth of stats in an auction with 30% inflation.

3) What's your dump culture like?

Anderson at $15 wouldn't be all that dump-able a commodity in my home league. In your league, though, Anderson might fetch back two All-Stars in June. You know this better than I do. It would obviously be foolish to even consider trading Anderson if you can get this kind of return back later in the year.

Looking at your staff on the whole, CC seems like overkill to me. However, your friend isn't that far off base. An Anderson for CC deal wouldn't be highway robbery for either side.