Sunday, November 21, 2010

2010 N.L. Second Basemen

This is the sixth chart I've run this winter of the 10 most expensive players at a position, but the first one where a group of 10 turned a profit.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Second Basemen 2010

#Player$Sal+/-PKZIPS2009
1Chase Utley$20$38-18$35$34$33
2Brandon Phillips$24$28-4$27$28$28
3Dan Uggla$29$21 +8$17$19 $18
4Ian Stewart $14$20-5$14$17$15
5Rickie Weeks$27$19+8$14$12$7
6Martin Prado $24$15+9$15$16$16
7Placido Polanco$17$14+3$14$19$17
8Kelly Johnson
$26$14+12$14$17$7
9Clint Barmes$7$13-5$11$14$18
10Casey McGehee$23$11+12$11$13$16

Average$21$19+2$17$19$18

We're not talking huge profits here, but for the 10 most expensive of anything that isn't going to happen in Stage Three.

There isn't even a sneaky high $20s earner at the bottom of this chart who blows the profit curve. Five of the six hitters who turn a profit here put $8-12 in the plus column; only Johnson and McGehee are Top 20 profit-makers. But I'm sure Uggla, Prado, and Weeks' owners were happy with what they got for what they paid.


There is only one hitter paid like an elite here, and boy did he hurt. Utley's $18 loss doesn't give his owners the bath that Jose Reyes owners took last year, but it still must have stung. It is particularly bad when you consider that the other nine 2B here still managed to earn an average of $21 while only costing $17 apiece.

Rotoman's price and ZIPS's predictions both seem to recommend avoiding the guys at the top and waiting for the next tier of players, figuring one of them will land at your price. ZIPS would clean up from Prado on down - and could even afford taking the value hit on Barmes - but since they're going well over a hypothetical $3380 cap, they don't figure here. Rotoman ties the market on a number of players, but because he said no to so many guys at the top, he'd probably get most of these guys.


Ten Most Expensive N.L. Second Basemen 2010:
By Expert League Prices

#Player$PKCBSLABRTW2009
1Chase Utley$20$35$42$35$37$33
2Brandon Phillips$24$27$26$28$29$28
3Dan Uggla$29$17 $26$17$21 $18
4Ian Stewart $14$14$19$22$18$15
5Rickie Weeks$27$14$18$16$24$7
6Martin Prado $24$15$13$16$16$16
7Placido Polanco$17$14$11$16$16$17
8Kelly Johnson
$26$14$7$18$17$7
9Clint Barmes$7$11$14$11$13$18
10Casey McGehee$23$11$10$12$10$16

Average$21$17$19$19$20$18


Um, or maybe not.


CBS is the big spender compared to LABR and Tout Wars, going $40 or over on eight hitters compared to two apiece for LABR and Tout. But since Utley is the only perceived stud here, you can see what happens when CBS starts running out of money while LABR and Tout still have plenty in their pockets.

CBS would buy Utley, Uggla and Barmes in a hypothetical four-way auction against the two other expert leagues. Tout Wars would get Phillips and Weeks, while LABR would buy Stewart, Johnson and McGehee. LABR and Tout would tie on Prado and Polanco. Rotoman is shut out.


But not in real life, because you have to buy somebody at your auction. In Tout Wars, he bought Barmes for $13 and Felipe Lopez for (gulp) $9. He went over his bid limit on the chart above by $2 for Barmes for Lopez by $1. I don't have the round-by-round in front of me for Tout Wars, but at some point during the auction the hard, cold reality of either spending your money or leaving a big chunk of it came crashing down.


While there were a couple of hitters worth waiting for at the bottom, evidence once again suggests that you were better off spending your money rather than waiting to hit the jackpot at the end.

Top 10 N.L. Second Basemen 2010

#Player$Sal+/-PKZIPS2009
1Dan Uggla$29$21+8$17$19$18
2Rickie Weeks$27$19+8$14$12$7
3Kelly Johnson$26$14 +12$14$17 $7
4Martin Prado $24$15+9$15$16$16
5Brandon Phillips$24$28-4$27$28$28
6Casey McGehee$23$11+12$11$13$16
7Chase Utley$20$38-18$35$34$33
8Omar Infante
$19$1+18$1$8$7
9Placido Polanco$17$14+3$14$19$17
10Juan Uribe$16$5+11$6$12$15

Average$23$17+6$15$18$16

Uribe and Infante were waiting for patient owners toward the end of and - in Infante's case - at the end of the auction. However, eight out of 10 hitters repeating on the most expensive and 10 best charts suggests that playing the end game wasn't a good gamble.

Tout Wars, by the way, passed on Infante. Thirteen owners - including Rotoman and yours truly - didn't think he was worth throwing out at $1. I can't sit here and just keeping booing Rotoman without giving myself a big raspberry here. Given my stars and scrubs strategy in Tout, that was a poorer play on my part than it was on Rotoman's. Infante certainly wasn't a lock to put up $19 worth of stats, but he sure would have been a better play for me than Ronnie Belliard.

1 comment:

Rotoman said...

I love this stuff, even when I'm looking like a fool. I blame Barmes for that. I didn't like him, but he was my safe haven. Ha!

My real safe haven was Lopez, who I thought I would pick off cheaply, but as you suggest Mike, at the end there were multiple teams scrambling for scraps at 2B, and these were the last two attractive (if you can call it that) guys.

The bottom line in 13 team NL leagues is that there are not enough hitters to fill rosters, which means the cheap guys at the end aren't cheap. How you negotiate that problem, buying Infante would have helped immensely, will usually determine the effectiveness of your auction.