Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Keeper Smackdown: Angel Pagan vs. Jamie Garcia

My post last week on keepers inspired at least one reader:
As I head into two bubble keepers are looking to be Angel Pagan $2 and Jaime Garcia $2. Thinking of keeping the hitter over the pitcher. Wondering your thoughts on these two players for 2011....
First of all, Dennis either: a) is in a league where you can only keep 3-5 players or, b) has one of the sickest freeze lists ever. Both Pagan and Garcia look like great keeps at the moment and neither one would be a terrible choice over the other.

As of Monday, Pagan was on pace to earn $29 (in 5x5) and Garcia was on pace to earn $19. Based on what each player has done so far, Pagan appears to be the better keep.

We all know that solely judging a player's worth by what he did the previous year is folly. However, the 2010 earnings should be a starting point when you try to estimate what a player would be worth in 2011.

For Pagan, I'd ask myself if the batting average is sustainable and if he'll continue to run the way he did this year. Given the high SB/CS% and the decent LD%, I'd say that most of what he did this year is sustainable. If you want to ding Pagan because you think you'll be able to luck into some speed this year at you auction the way you did with Pagan, then set the bid somewhere in the low $20s.

Pitchers tend to fluctuate even more than hitters. While I like Garcia a lot long term, if he put up an ERA more in line with his FIP of 3.43, he'd be a $16 pitcher. That's still very good...but as we know there is a lot of fluctuation and unpredictability in the traditional ERA/WHIP metrics that we use to measure pitchers. I could see Garcia put up a $20 season next year...but I could also see a $10 season out of him as well. $12 would be a conservative bid for him, while $16-17 would be aggressive.

This still puts Pagan in the lead. I'd probably keep Pagan over Garcia simply because hitting tends to be more reliable than pitching, unless you are talking about a bonafide ace like Roy Halladay or Adam Wainwright. Since Garcia doesn't fall in that category - and since I don't see anything in his numbers to indicate an ace-type breakout is coming - I'd keep Pagan.

1 comment:

Dennis said...

You are correct. Top four teams can keep three players. My other two will be Carlos Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw. A few others to choose from will be McGehee $8, K Johnson $9 and Wainwright $29.

Thanks for all your help this year.