Sunday, July 11, 2010

A.L. FAAB Supplemental: Daniel Hudson

With Jake Peavy out for the season, a lot of fantasy analysts are talking Dan Hudson up as his "obvious" or "natural" replacements. In deep A.L.-only leagues with reserve lists or farm systems, such talk is silly, as Hudson is already stashed, but Hudson is a big reason why I do the supplemental.

Anyway, Hudson definitely looks like a solid pitcher to me though I don't see a future star. He's one of those college pitchers who looks polished but doesn't necessarily look like a potential dominator going forward. Hudson throws three plus pitches: a 90-93 MPH fastball, a solid curve, and a good change. John Sickels says that Hudson's delivery is deceptive, which helps.

Hudson's numbers at AAA were solid, but the MLE of his FIP was a pedestrian 4.51. This indicates someone who might struggle at times (like Hudson did today against the Royals). The problem is a very high HR/IP rate, though Charlotte has been playing like a solid to strong hitters park this year. If Hudson can keep his K rate up around 7-8 batters per nine, he still has a shot to be a decent #3-4 for the White Sox this year, with more upside in the future. $40 is the high end of the bid if you're desperate for a starting pitcher, but $15-20 is probably a more realistic landing spot. I think there will be bright spots, but also think there will be some clunkers like todays in Hudson's future.

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