Revisiting Justin Smoak

Since he's been up for a little over a month, I thought I'd take another look at Justin Smoak.

In late April, I wrote:

This isn't to knock Smoak as a prospect. I think he's a very good one and will have a long and productive career. What I don't foresee is a Mark Teixeira/Prince Fielder/Ryan Howard career path. Smoak will be very good - and maybe even have a great season or two - but I don't see an elite player here, at least not based on his current statistical profile.

Entering tonight's action, Smoak was sporting a very uninspiring 189/310/344 slash line in 145 plate appearances. So was my conservatism justified?

Nope. I think Smoak is going to be better than I initially gave him credit for. There are a couple of things I see in the tea leaves that I like.

1) He's hitting more fly balls than I expected. I noted that Smoak's minor league G/F rate was high enough that he was going to be more of a 15-20 HR hitter than a 25-30 HR bopper. So far, though, he's hitting more balls in the air than on the ground and - as a result - had five dingers entering tonight (he hit his sixth in tonight's game).

2) His LD% is tremendous. 24.7% of Smoak's batted balls in play have gone for line drives. Amongst A.L. qualifiers, that would be good for sixth in the league. Meanwhile, his BABIP sits at a paltry .196. Of the five A.L. qualifiers with stronger LD%, Adam Rosales has the lowest BABIP at .339. If Smoak keeps pounding the ball with this much authority, the average will come.

I was right about one thing: his numbers against LHP stink so far. He's 2-for-36 with a ghastly 285 OPS. Obviously, we're talking about a really small sample, but at some point he might have to start sitting against some lefties.

Overall, though, I'm more impressed than I thought I'd be. Smoak will get better, and if you're playing for next year, he's still a pretty good target in keeper leagues.