Chances are good that if you're in a keeper league, that Stephen Strasburg was long gone before he set foot on a Major League mound. But who is still down on the farm and worth picking up, either for this year or for the future?
(I'm going to avoid writing about this group of pitchers I wrote about earlier this season).
Jake Arrieta (AAA). 6-2, 73 IP, 48 H, 34 BB, 3 HR, 64 K, 1.85 ERA, 1.12 WHIP.
Arrieta's scheduled to make his Major League debut tomorrow against the Yankees. His minor league numbers look great, but there are a lot of reasons to be wary. He's moving from a somewhat pitcher-friendly park in AAA to a hitter-friendly park in Baltimore, he's in a terrible division for a young pitcher, and the Orioles aren't going to give him many win chances. I can see a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA best case, but worst case I could also see a 5.00 or higher out of the gate. Long term, I like Arrieta, but I think he'll struggle in the short term the way that both Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz have at times this year.
Kyle Drabek (AA). 7-4, 72 2/3 IP, 64 H, 32 BB, 5 HR, 63 K, 3.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP.
The numbers are good but not great, particularly for someone with all of the hype Drabek has received over the years. John Sickels notes that Drabek is starting to resemble more of a mid-tier guy than a future ace. I think Drabek's ceiling is more as a #2 guy, but I can see why Sickels is being cautious. The bad news if you were counting on Drabek this year is that he's probably more likely to be an impact guy in 2011 than this year, barring multiple injuries to the Blue Jays staff or a sudden hot streak.
Daniel Hudson (AAA). 8-2, 65 1/3 IP, 61 H, 18 BB, 8 HR, 77 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP.
Hudson is a name to store in the back of your head if the White Sox do decide to fire sale and give up on 2010. The HR/IP rate isn't good, but despite the somewhat high ERA, Hudson has had some bad BIP luck and his MLE is just a shade over 4.1 as a result. He strikes me as a mid-tier guy if he makes it up but with some upside if everything breaks right. Hudson - if he makes it - might be a better guy than Arrieta or Drabek this year even if he doesn't have the long-term upside that those prospects do.
Casey Kelly (AA). 1-3 43 1/3 IP, 51 H, 17 BB, 3 HR, 37 K, 4.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP.
Kelly was already a long-term prospect, and his poor numbers at AA ensure that he won't be up until late 2011 at the earliest. Keep in mind that Kelly is 20 years old and pitching in AA. That doesn't mean these numbers should be completely ignored, but it does mean that Kelly should be looked at less harshly than a 23 year old putting up these numbers. Kelly is having a lot of bad BABIP luck and his FIP is a less cruel 3.83. Right now, Kelly is a guy who is a name to remember unless you're in a league with deep farm systems.
Christian Friedrich (AA). 0-3, 40 IP, 47 H, 14 BB, 5 HR, 37 K, 4.72 ERA, 1.53 WHIP.
Friedrich is having a rough go of it at Tulsa this year. The whiff rate is fine, but all of the other numbers are off and - unlike Kelly - Friedrich isn't young enough to simply write all of this off due to age. He's too much of a talent to simply write off, but if you were hoping for a contribution this year, you're almost definitely going to be disappointed. Curiously, he's being pounded by left-handed batters while doing OK if not great against righties. He's not finished as a prospect, but Friedrich is going to need to turn it around soon (he'll be 23 next month) or risk falling into the second tier.
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With Friedrich, you want to remember that he went on the disabled list after his 3rd start. Through that start, he had a 2.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The elbow soreness, however, guarantees that he will not be up any time soon; late 2011 seems to be the earliest date.
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