More on Minor League Pitchers

Since I've got minor league pitchers on the brain, I thought I'd look at some of the top pitching prospects entering 2010 and see how they're doing.

Stephen Strasburg (AA/AAA). 6-1, 40 1/3 IP, 17 H, 10 BB, 0 HR, 49 K, 0.89 ERA, 0.67 WHIP.
There isn't much to say about Strasburg that hasn't already been said. If you want to say something negative, I guess the fact that he's not striking out over 16 batters a game like he did in college is a letdown. It's impossible to say that Strasburg is going to dominate, but an ERA in the low 3s this year in the Majors wouldn't surprise me in the least.


Jeremy Hellickson (AAA). 6-2, 50 IP, 52 H, 11 BB, 2 HR, 55 K, 3.24 ERA, 1.26 WHIP.
Hellickson only looks disappointing in contrast to Strasburg, and when you use FIP, Hellickson has been almost as good (2.35 to Strasburg's 1.93). If the Rays had to call on him today, he could probably fill in capably as a mid-tier rotation starter, and definitely has more upside than that. Given the Rays predilection not to rush their young talent, I don't expect to see Hellickson under September, barring injury.


Aroldis Chapman (AAA). 4-2, 40 2/3 IP, 39 H, 24 BB, 4 HR, 48 K, 3.98 ERA, 1.55 WHIP.
After getting off to a fast start, Chapman struggled in back-to-back starts before turning in a good start his last time out. Unfortunately, he came out due to a blister on his throwing hand and could miss a start. Clearly, the results here aren't as good as they are for Strasburg and Hellickson, but I'm impressed that a Cuban prospect has put up such good numbers out of the gate (poor WHIP notwithstanding). It seems less likely that Chapman will contribute this year in the bigs, but I can see him being a solid pitcher in mid-2011 and beyond.

Martin Perez (AA). 2-2, 33 IP, 36 H, 20 BB, 2 HR, 37 K, 4.91 ERA, 1.70 WHIP.
Perez is a 19-year-old in AA, so he deserves some slack for the numbers he's put up to date. However, a 1.7 WHIP is ugly regardless of the circumstances, so if you drafted Perez and hoped that he was going to stay on the fast track, those plans have been derailed. Like Hellickson, Perez's FIP (3.76) tells a nicer story, but those walks are something that Perez is going to need to work on. He's on a very strict pitch count, which explains the low IP. Perez won't be up any time soon, and at this rate will need more time in AA in 2011.

Madison Bumgarner (AAA). 3-1, 42 IP, 43 H, 13 BB, 4 HR, 32 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP.
Bumgarner's overall numbers are fairly pedestrian and by themselves wouldn't earn him a promotion to the bigs. However, most of the bad results came in his first two starts of the season. Since then, he's put up 35 IP and allowed 22 H, 11 BB and 6 ER while striking out 26. Reports indicate that Bumgarner's velocity is mostly back - up in the 91-93 MPH range from the 87-89 he was hitting at the end of last season - and that he's added an effective cutter to his repertoire. There are rumblings that he's going to be promoted soon. We'll see how effective he is this time around, but it's starting to sound at the very least like Bumgarner is back or on his way back as an elite prospect.