Monday, June 14, 2010

A.L. FAAB Log: June 14, 2010

David Hernandez $14. Other bids $14, $10, $3, $2.
Hernandez is the latest entrant in the Orioles never-ending closer carousel that started revolving when Mike Gonzalez hit the D.L. back in April. Hernandez has tantalized for years with high strikeout numbers in AAA and a fastball that can hit 95-96 MPH on the gun. The bad news is that his K/BB in the Majors this year stinks and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher in an extreme fly ball park. The hope has always been that a move to the pen means Hernandez will start throwing 97-98 MPH and he'll be unhittable. So far, the results have been more than solid against the Yanks and Red Sox. There are murmurs that Alfredo Simon will get the job back when he comes of the D.L. this week, but my money is on Hernandez in the short term. He's worth a flier if you're desperate for saves and want to make a high risk/high reward move.

Daniel Nava $10. Other bids $6, $4, $3, $1.
Nava has the kind of story that's so ridiculous that it seems made up. A non-drafted free agent, Nava spent a year in the independent Golden League before the Red Sox signed him in 2008. He's not any kind of prospect, but all he's done as a professional is rake. The grand slam he hit on the first pitch he saw in the Majors certainly got everyone's attention and Nava earned another start yesterday and went 2-for-4. Nava is probably not going to be a long-term success; the MLE of his numbers at AAA is a less-than-inspiring 702 OPS. But even if you don't own Nava, you're dead inside if you're not rooting for this guy.

Jesse Litsch $5.
After missing a year and a half after Tommy John surgery, Litsch finally made it back to the bigs today...and got pounded by the Rockies in Colorado. The bad news: Litsch's stuff didn't seem to have a lot of movement and the Rockies teed off. The good news: Litsch's velocity was higher than it was pre-injury, and if he does get the command back in order, he could be an intriguing play down the road. Right now, Litsch is still too risky for even A.L.-only leagues and is, at best, a match-up guy.

Mike Carp $5. Other bids $4, $4, $3.
Carp was one of the many pieces the Mariners acquired in the big Franklin Gutierrez/J.J. Putz deal the Mets, Indians and Mariners made a couple of winters ago. Carp had always looked like a Lyle Overbay type at best, and a Quad-A 1B at worst. This year, he started banging HR at AAA at the expense of his batting average. He's only 23 so he could wind up having a long and productive career, but right now he looks more like a Casey Kotchman type than anything better.

Chad Cordero $3.
It is more than sound reasoning to take a flier on any available Mariner relievers. David Aardsma has now gone five consecutive outings without a strikeout and is definitely scuffling right now. However, Cordero probably isn't going to be the answer if Aardsma does lose the job. Cordero's velocity is way down and it seems like the M's are going to use him in a number of low leverage situations at the outset. This isn't a bad long-term flier if you're rebuilding but it's not much of a short-term move.

Ramon Santiago $1.
The Tigers keep shuttling infielders in and out of town, yet Santiago remains a constant. Santiago isn't worth owning right now, but is worth keeping an eye on, as Carlos Guillen is always a sneeze away from a DL stint while Danny Worth is unproven at SS.

Reggie Willits $1.
Way, way back in 2007, Willits stole 27 bases and was quite an asset in A.L.-only leagues. Three years later, Willits is organizational filler who doesn't even run that much when he plays. Not worth owning in A.L.-only leagues, even if you are desperate for the speed.

Ryan Langerhans $1.
Every year, some poor owner gets sucked into Langerhans and every year some poor owner winds up getting nothing for his FAAB. Langerhans is a fundamentally decent player who doesn't have quite enough power for a corner OF slot or enough defense for center field. He's the last bat off of the Mariners bench and even with all of their injuries it's hard to see him getting a clean shot at a starting job.

Alexi Ogando $1.
Most 26-year-old minor league relievers aren't even worth thinking about, let alone FAABing in a competitive A.L.-only league. Ogando, however, was not allowed to enter the U.S. due to a citizenship issue that took years to resolve. He has dominated in the minors this year, and it was reported he's hitting in the high 90s with control. Ogando probably won't close in Texas with Neftali Feliz and Frank Francisco in front of him, but he's definitely worth monitoring in keeper formats: this guy can pitch.

Michael Ryan. Claimed by 12th place team.
I wrote about Ryan back on May 24 Since then, Ryan has picked up a handful of starts at 1B. This increases his value a little, but I still don't see him as an asset.

Manny Delcarmen. Claimed by 4th place team.
Delcarmen was having back issues earlier in the week, but this seems to have cleared up. Delcarmen throws in the upper 90s when he's firing on all cylinders, and is worth owning in deep A.L.-only leagues. Do not expect any saves here.

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