Ty Wigginton or Brett Wallace?

Over at Patton and Company, jem1776 wonders who he'll get more value out of the rest of the way.

Have (Ty) Wigginton tied to Brett Wallace. Which one will have generated the most value at the end of 2010 in a league that uses the standard 4X4, plus plate appearances and runs scored?

Obviously, there are a number of variables tied into this question that doesn't lend itself to a simple answer (though I suppose jem wouldn't be asking if this was an easy question to answer).

First, let me dispense with the obvious. Wigginton isn't going to hit 56 HR this year. As Fangraphs astutely pointed out, Wigginton simply cannot sustain his HR/FB% rate all year long. Right now he's sitting at 34.3% and his career rate is 13.3%. Even if Wigginton defies his career average, the Major League leader last year - Mark Reynolds - hit home runs at a 26% clip. Wigginton is going to tail off.

That being said, I think too many experts - including me - wrote him off too quickly this spring. The Brian Roberts injury certainly gave Wiggy an opening he could drive a Mack truck through, but he's always been a solid power hitter. Prior to last year, Wigginton hit 24, 22 and 23 HR from 2006-2008. Even more impressive, he did this in fewer than 500 plate appearances in '06 and '08. He might have his flaws, but Wigginton most definitely has his value in Roto.

Wallace is even more of a wild card because it's hard to predict if or when the Blue Jays will call him up. Lyle Overbay has a miserable 282/315/597 slash line, but most of that was generated during a horrible 13-game slump that started the 2010 campaign. In his last 18 games, Overbay has put up a more respectable 391/466/857 line, which aligns much more with what he did last year and what he's capable of going forward.

Wallace is punishing PCL pitching, to the tune of a 9/23/.291 traditional line with an even more impressive 363/609/972 slash. This isn't a PCL mirage, either; Wallace is 6th overall in the circuit, and one of the few hitters on the leaderboard who isn't a minor league lifer or Major League has-been.

I don't like the high whiff rate (31 in 123 plate appearances) but don't doubt the power potential. I could see Wallace matching a 20-25 HR pace the rest of the way with a .250-.260 batting average. That's more than solid, and if the Jays have a need, Wallace will get called up.

However, I'd be more inclined to "bet" on Wigginton, particularly if you can keep him if he's traded to the National League. I haven't heard anything along the lines of a timetable with Wallace, and while he could be up in a week or two, he could also sit in the minors until July. Given that Wigginton has already shown himself to be the player the Wallace could be this year, I'd go with the guy who has already proven what he's capable of now and not the guy who might be better at some point later this year.