Monday, May 10, 2010

N.L. FAAB Log May 10, 2010

Craig Kimbrel $11: Kimbrel looks like a closer of the future for the Braves. A B prospect, Kimbrel put up absurd numbers at four levels last year. Sixty innings pitched led to 103 strikeouts and only 30 hits. Those same innings also saw 45 walks, and that's the rub. AAA was kind to him as a 22-year-old in limited innings this year, but I don't think it is fair to expect a lot or, frankly, for him to be up very long. If you are looking ahead toward next year, however, this is not a bad future play at all.

Jose Contreras $5: Contreras has been very good in limited innings with the Phillies so far this year. Brad Lidge is back in the closer role, but with Ryan Madson out for the foreseeable future and with Danys Baez struggling, not only might Contreras take the set-up role, but he might find himself with a stray save or two to boot.

John Bowker $2: Bowker was thought to be the Giants starting right fielder at the beginning of the season, but he just didn't hit. He will find some ABs as the Giants scramble to cover some injuries, but the minimal plate appearances and minimal pop won't justify the lack of contact.

Zach Duke $2: Probably the most intriguing player on our waiver wire this week, Duke is suffering in a simple place: the strike zone. The simple fact of the matter is that his BABIP is high, his LD% is about right for his career, his GB% is higher, and his infield fly ball rate is higher (and maybe not sustainable). His xFIP is under 4.8, and, frankly, if he can lower that 4+ BB/9, he is a true turn-around candidate and should be owned.

Chris Narveson $2: Narveson is a bit of a mystery to me. He has a decent K rate, but a very high walk rate. He gives up a lot of fly balls and many of those get hit out of the park. He has the Phillies this week, so it appears to me to be an odd pick-up. I would steer clear of him.

Steve Pearce $2: Steven Pearce has spent a lot of time hitting in the minor leagues, and put up a 1.000+ OPS in AAA this year. Unfortunately, Pearce did this in his Age 27 year, and he hasn't hit a lick in the majors. Two dollars is really higher than you want to go for Pearce at this point. On a pretty bad Pirates team, he should get some ABs here and there, but likely won't hit enough to stay...again.

Oliver Perez $2: I wrote about Oliver Perez here; since then things have gotten worse, not better. Given his control issues, I would not recommend him.

John Jay $1: First Chief Justice of the United States and a reserve outfielder in the making, Jay has never dominated any level in the minors and, while putting up a good season in AAA at 25, he was old for the minors and you would expect a good season based on his level of refinement. He likely won't get enough ABs to make any difference to your team, and while he makes contact, he doesn't really steal bases either.

Hisanori Takahashi $1: A strikeout machine so far this year, Takahashi could also be in line to replace Perez in the Mets rotation should Perez get the hook (this week will be telling). He is serviceable in 5x5 because of the strikeouts, but keep an eye out if he gets put into a starter's role, as he does not look stretched out yet at this point.

Joel Hanrahan $1: I wrote about Hanrahan here. Not much has changed, though Evan Meek may be first in line for saves if Dotel should falter.

Bryan Peterson $1: Peterson is still pretty young, but he already looks like a reserve outfielder. He has a little bit of speed and a little bit of power, and his K/BB rate are helpful if you play with OBP. Keep an eye on Cameron Maybin's playing time; Peterson could have a little value if Maybin continues to struggle.

Fernando Nieve $0: Nieve might be the Mets set-up man right now. He's hard to hit, keeps the ball near the zone, and will rack up nearly 100 innings. Not a bad play if your league values middle relievers.

Nick Masset $0: Masset's K/9 is 14.40. That is nearly as ludicrous as his 5.40 BB/9 and his .550 BABIP. Which of these numbers is not sustainable? Likely all of them. I find, though, that when a pitcher becomes wild in a way that is out of character for his prior performance, it is due to arm slots. The number one cause of a new arm slot? Injury. Ride him until he's on the DL, but watch out if you are competitive in ERA and WHIP for the time being.

Craig Stammen $0: I wrote about Stammen here. Frankly, he's been half bad and half good, and he has the Mets in New York this week. He should be able to keep the ball in the park, and with the Mets a little dinged up and with David Wright running bad for the last few days, he is worth a flier.

Henry Blanco $0: As back-up catchers go, Blanco is a good one. Rod Barajas, however, isn't going anywhere anytime soon, so take your occasional home run and rejoice.

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