It depends on a few factors:
- Do you have a reliable/dependable ace? It doesn't matter if your ace isn't necessarily performing up to snuff now; in fact, someone with at least a 2-3 year track record is a better option than someone who just burst on to the scene this year.
- Are your slow starting pitchers likely to recover, based on either interior numbers or historical trends?
- How deep a hole have you dug yourself?
As I talked about earlier this year, pitchers generally bounce back to their career norms given the opportunity by their Major League teams. If you own a pitcher off to a bad start, it's more likely that he'll be given the chance to get better if he's done it before, has a significant enough Major League contract, and hasn't been so awful that his team has no choice but to stop the madness (see Wang, Chien-Ming, 2009).
I went through this myself last year in my American League. I endured Wang's horrific April yet still managed to finish with 19 (out of 24) pitching points. Obviously, I might have won ERA/WHIP if I had not traded for Wang in the off-season, but Wang is an excellent object lesson in being patient and believing that you can recover.
He's also an exception to what is a very difficult rule to follow in Rotisserie when it comes to pitching: Be Patient. It's not easy - particularly in leagues where you can't reserve active pitchers - to watch your pitcher get shelled week in and week out. And there are cases - like Wang's in 2009 - where you have to pull the plug.
If you have a pitcher who is putting up anything south of a 6.00 ERA, though, you probably have to endure and hope that he turns it around. Gavin Floyd and Scott Feldman might be pushing you toward the brink of insanity, but if you have them at $10 apiece, you already invested close to a quarter of your pitching budget in these two jokers. Their FIP says they'll get better, and history tells us that they likely will.
Hang in there, if only because you don't have another choice short of throwing in the towel on your season. That might not be a bad idea either, but when considering that choice, analyze how good your pitching staff is based on what you believed coming into the season, not based on a 45-50 game sample size from this season.
5 comments:
Absolutely timely post. Sabathia, Vazquez, Scherzer, Masterson, Guthrie and Slowey as primary starters - and, yuck, buried indeed. The one thought you did not cover is when, assuming you have decent closers (in this case, Bailey and Aardsma), do you sell the SP and bring in at least one more top closer and some lesser light SP and play for SVs, and pick up the WHIP and ERA points, punting the wins?
Noah - I got into this discussion with regard to T.J.'s question about his starters: http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2010/05/cateogry-optimization-at-quarter-mile.html
The answer really is (and I hate saying this): it depends. Sabathia will get better; Vazquez has been getting better; Scherzer is down; Guthrie is much improved and Slowey should be the same Slowey you saw last year. Masterson, well, in a 5x5, has some value. I would stay the course here, since innings from starters significantly impact 3 categories in 4x4 and 4 of them in 5x5.
Toz, thanks. Depends is not a bad answer. The math suggests to me that I might get as many WHIP and ERA points just by CC and Vazquez pitching to norms (because of their innings). Did acquire C Lewis and Joba (at $6, next year play) for J. Guillen so maybe he will continue to pitch reasonably well and not melt in Texas. Will be distracted by non pitching matters because fire sale team wants Zobrist, Wallace and Gordon for Markakis and C. Pena.
Is it OK to lose patience with Feldman if you're able to pick up Sergio Santos from the waiver wire to replace him?
Scott Feldman might be someone to write about. His interiors suggest improvement, but, at some point, it is difficult to wait around on a pitcher. His FIP this year and last year are pretty similar and his BABIP and strand rate are pretty high and low, respectively. I think he's due for a good run.
I do not expect Santos to sustain his current sub-1.00 ERA with his walk rate, but let's just say that he has been great. He won't close any time in the near future, but he is someone to keep an eye on for sure.
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