Big FAAB Bids and Their Impact

On Sunday, I wrote about Alfredo Simon and how I thought an $18 bid for a fill-in closer was possibly folly. Generally speaking, though, is making a big FAAB bid helpful?

Top 10 A.L. FAAB Bids 2009

#	Player	$				FAAB
1	Adam LaRoche	$1				$39
2	Scott Hairston	$5				$33
3	Jake Peavy	$7				$24
4	Michael Brantley	$4				$23
5	Jason Isringhausen	$1				$23
6	Kevin Jepsen	$2				$22
7	Jeremy Accardo	$1				$21
8	Edwin Encarnacion	$4				$21
9	Vin Mazzaro	-$8				$19
10	Aaron Cunningham	-$1				$17
	Average	$2				$24

Teams in my regular A.L. spent an average of 1/4th of their FAAB budgets on these guys and didn't get much back in return. Not one of these pitchers showed up in the Top 10 free agent pitcher or hitter lists last season.

That doesn't necessarily mean that any of these bids are bad bids; looking back at FAAB in a vacuum without any kind of context doesn't tell us much of anything. What I do see, though, is how unpredictable players in the free agent pool are.

This makes sense. Advice telling us to wait until a starting pitcher has three or four solid outings and establishes himself is sensible...if you're in a mixed league and have the luxury of waiting for a pitcher to have 3-4 solid outings. In an A.L. or N.L.-only league, if you don't pounce on that pitcher or hitter after that first good week, you're not going to own him.

If you make an aggressive bid, it should be based on 1) need and 2) belief that the player you're bidding on could be a top free agent earner by year's end. To that end, I'm not a big fan of bidding big on potential closers. You might hit the jackpot, but you probably won't...see Izzy, Jepsen, and Accardo above. Bidding big on a hitter with a clear shot at regular playing time or a starting pitcher who will toe the rubber every fifth day makes more sense...even if it turns out to be a swing and a miss.