Taking What the Room Gives You

Like me, Rodger is a big believer in taking what the auction gives.

I'm a big believer in buying what the room is undervaluing. My 12 team AL draft had only about 12% inflation this year, but guys were buying stars at very high prices. Closers were especially overvalued -- most going for $30 and up. Rivera went for $40!

In the middle of the auction, only one other owner had significant cash to buy the remaining large supply of $10 to $20 players. I swooped in and bought 5 players during round 7 and 2 more in round 8. In total, those 7 players cost $22 less than what my prep sheet showed.

In contrast, I had calculated $88 in overspending through round 6! 

Owners in my non-expert leagues are often thrown off by the fact that I spend early in some auctions while in others I seemingly hang back and wait for the mid-tier players (like Rodger did in his auction). This typically has less to do with strategy and far more to do with valuation.

Last year, before some of the owners had even finished smearing the cream cheese on their bagels, I blew through $100 on three players. This wasn't because I had to beat the traffic, get to a hot date, or whatever canned joke you'd like to throw in here, but because it seemed like the room was afraid to spend money early on premium players. I projected a +9 with inflation on those three players. As it turned it, I was only $3 below their non-inflation earnings. Sure enough, the prices in Rounds 5-7 of the auction were $1 too high per player.

In 2008, I sat on my hands for the first three rounds, only grabbing two players at a combined $44. Predictably, the bargains started coming later in the auction since the room was overspending its money early. Despite coming in with a weak freeze list (the result of winning it all the year before), I managed to cobble together a run for 4 1/2 months before my team unraveled.

In both cases, the same basic valuation principles applied. Go where the bargains take you. This may sound like a Zen koan, but it's really pretty simple advice, and the best advice I can give to any owner. You may not like missing out on players you like or someone who you think is a sleeper, but you will buy a competitive team every year.

I don't offer guarantees at this web site, but if I did, that would be one of them.