Optimizing Your Roster: How Did I Do?

Last time out, I looked at the freezes in my non-expert American League and determined that I'd probably have to dump categories. I went in to my auction with the fuzzy idea of paying $150-155 for my hitters and $105-110 for my pitchers. The idea was to have a balanced offense that would finish middle of the pack across the board while getting as many pitching points as possible.

As a reminder, my freezes looked like this:

1B/OF Nick Swisher $13

2B/SS Asdrubal Cabrera $16

SS Marco Scutaro $3

OF Austin Jackson $5

OF Nolan Reimold $12

DH Andruw Jones $1

P Dallas Braden $1

P Matt Thornton $1

P C.J. Wilson $1

Below are the players I bought and the players who I had the last bid on. The number next to the player is where he was called out overall. Players purchased are in bold, players I had the last bid on are italicized. Overall inflation was 25.7%, hitting inflation 29.6%, pitching inflation 18.9%.

Keep in mind that this is a 4x4 league.

Round 1

2) Ian Kinsler $37. (Raw Bid $30 Inflation, $39).

Right away, my plan was abandoned. I was price enforcing...figuring that someone playing for next year was going to push him a tick higher, but the room froze at $37 and he was mine. I'm OK with the price, but obviously hope he's back sooner rather than later.

7) Zack Greinke $37 ($33; $39).

Looking back at the auction after the dust had settled, Greinke's the guy who got away. My offense might not have been as balanced as I would have liked after the Kinsler buy, but I still could have fulfilled my pitching plan if I had bought Greinke.

8) Lyle Overbay $12 ($10, $13).

I hate when guys like Overbay come up early. I could have let him go at $11 in the hopes that better CO buys came up later, but that's a sure way to either overspend later or leave money on the table. If he doesn't get traded out of the American League, he'll be fine at this price.

Round 2

15) Justin Verlander $34 ($29, $34).

OK, so Greinke wasn't my last chance at an ace. I didn't really like Verlander at $33 and was price enforcing. Toz got him for $34 and I was fine with that. But I had definitely abandoned my strategy now. The best starters left on the board were Javier Vazquez and Jered Weaver.

23) Mike Gonzalez $16 ($14, $17).

I was kind of price enforcing here but it wouldn't have been the end of the world if I bought Gonzalez at $16. Gonzalez's price gives an idea of what the top closers were going for. The next cheapest available closers were Brian Fuentes and Bobby Jenks at $24 apiece. Even in 4x4, I wasn't willing to pay those prices.

Round 3

28) Taylor Teagarden $5 ($5, $6).

I bumped Teagarden's price up a little bit before my auction. He's a potential average killer, but I'm not ruling out 10-12 HR even if Jarrod Saltalamacchia returns soon and Teagarden winds up as his caddy.

32) Edwin Encarnacion $16 ($13, $17).

I was price enforcing and happy to let Encarnacion go at $16.

35) Javier Vazquez $20 ($21, $25).

I suspect Vazquez's clunker in the first week drove down his price. That's fine by me. He's not going to put up the numbers he did for Atlanta last year, but he should be fine at this price. I dig having him $1 below my non-inflation bid.

Round 4

42) Bobby Abreu $31 ($24, $31).

43) Torii Hunter $29 ($23, $30).

I had $133 left to spend at this point and still hadn't purchased an outfielder. I don't like either one of these prices, but there's inflation for you. Given what happened next, I should have ticked Hunter up to $30.

45) Dioner Navarro $4 ($4, $5).

I probably should have pushed Navarro to inflation par, but I'm more of a Kelly Shoppach believer (he went for $12 much earlier) and Navarro was awful last year. I already had a gambit in mind I wasn't planning that I would improvise on the fly.

47) Alex Rios $28 ($22, $29).

Just like with Hunter, maybe I should have pushed Rios to inflation par. It was getting thin out there. The best outfielders left out there were Franklin Gutierrez and J.D. Drew, and I knew I was going to own both of them even if I overpaid.

Round 5

49) Joel Pineiro ($8, $10).

I had Pineiro higher on my sheet than most and thought I might sneak him through for $7-8. The owner bidding me up is a preference guy and not a bids guy and I suspect he would have pushed Pineiro to $14-15. I didn't want to find out, though, so I dropped out.

 
51) Scott Kazmir $13 ($10, $12).

I was price enforcing here. I noticed that there were a number of pitchers I liked about as much as Kazmir and though I'd be able to fill out my pitching staff at about $10 each.

55) Kevin Kouzmanoff $16 ($14, $18).

After a 20 player break (not that I wasn't trying, as you can see), I finally snagged Kouz. My price is higher than the Patton price, but I see a guy has slugged 420 or better three years running in a terrible hitting environment.

56) Adrian Beltre $21 ($18, $23).

As often happens when I perceive there are a lot of minuses on the board, the bargains start to fall in. If Beltre's shoulder is OK, he's a consistent $20+ earner who should put up something in that neighborhood again this year. Buying Beltre also allowed me to move Swisher to the OF and gave me one less OF to buy.

57) Joe Nathan $8 ($8, $10).

This price is obviously based on what you think Nathan might fetch in a dump deal this summer. I thought this was a fun gamble. If I don't dump him, he could be a great freeze next year.

60) J.D. Drew $20 ($13, $17).

Finally, I had to overpay in order to start spending my money. I was at +15 under inflation before buying Drew so while this stung it wasn't the end of the world. Like I said above, though, it makes Hunter or Rios look like the one that got away.

Round 6

65) Franklin Gutierrez $25 ($18, $23).

Another overpay, though not as bad as the Drew one. Another 20/20 season for Gutierrez isn't hard to envision, and if he can improve a little bit this price will work out.

68) Ben Sheets $7 ($11, $13).

Sheets was a guy I thought would go sailing past my price and I'd be out of it. I never expected to snag him at $7. This was probably my favorite buy of the day....he'll either earn money or get hurt and disappear. At $7 I can live with that.

Round 7

74) Erik Bedard $7 ($9, $11).

It certainly wasn't my plan to buy the M*A*S*H* pitching staff, but at this point I was taking what the room was going to let me have. The issue with him is health, not efficiency, and if I can get 100-125 IP out of Bedard at this price, I'll gladly take it.

76) Jarrod Saltalamacchia $8 ($2, $3).

After I didn't get Navarro, I decided to chase Salty and team up the Texas catchers. Hopefully one of them works out. I'm not a Salty believer, as you can see by my raw and inflation bids.

81) Daisuke Matsuzaka $6 ($9, $11).

I now had $15 left for a pitcher and was obviously going to leave money on the table. If the room had pushed me to my par on Sheets and Dice-K, this wouldn't have happened, but the trend in my A.L. has been not to spend on the pitchers in the middle and the bottom. I don't like having so many D.L. pitchers, but at these prices I wasn't complaining.

Round 8

93) Gio Gonzalez $6 ($5, $6).

And Gio was the guy I targeted with my last spot. He looked good in his first start and I'm still a believer that we haven't seen his ceiling at Age 24.

So there you have it. There were another 62 players left to buy but I was finished...with nine dollars sitting on the table. 


But did I improve my team from what I came in with? I'll look at that in my third and final post.