Toz wrote about Ike Davis one week ago in his FAAB supplemental entry. He's a hot search topic on the blog, so I thought I'd check in on Davis.
From what I've seen so far, I've been more impressed than I thought I would be. John Sickels said that Davis' swing looked a little long. Baseball Prospectus highlighted his struggles against lefties (his OPS was over 300 points lower against them in the minors in 2009 than vs. righties).
The sample sizes are all too small to offer any serious analysis. Anecdotally, Davis' swing looks tighter than I expected and he looks like he's made adjustments on making contact. I anticipate trouble against LHP as the season goes along, but I could see him hitting .270 with decent power.
Mike Axisa at Fangraphs had an excellent piece about Davis this past Tuesday. As far as Davis' ceiling goes, I dig Axisa's comment comparing Davis to Adam LaRoche. .280/25/90 in Davis' prime seems like a possibility, though obviously expecting him to get there this year is asking a lot.
The aggressive bid Toz suggested has less to do with Davis and more to do with the mechanics of FAAB. If you're in a league where you can't keep minor leaguers on reserve, the best chance you have of grabbing an impact player through FAAB is either with a prized prospect like Davis or an A.L. import.
Davis was Sickels' 21st best N.L. hitting prospect in his 2010 book. Jason Heyward and Alcides Escobar are already here. Take out the guys like Wilmer Flores and Dee Gordon who almost certainly won't be up this year and you're down a few more prospects. Players like Buster Posey and Mike Stanton are certainly better prospects. Crossing your fingers and hoping the better prospects come up sooner rather than later is akin to hoping that Carlos Quentin gets traded to the National League in July. Maybe it happens, but with Davis you know you're bidding on a guy who will start at 1B in the majors all year if he pans out. Don't break the bank on these guys, but do be prepared to bid aggressively...particularly if you need to take chances in the early going.
1 comment:
I just wanted to throw my observations in as well. His swing seems more polished and he looks very comfortable at the plate. Perhaps his year 1 campaign will be better than expected, though we haven't hit the dog days of summer yet, and major league pitchers haven't reached adjustment #1.
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