Keeper Decision - Chris Perez

Cinderella Story was wondering if Kerry Wood's injury means he should give consideration to keeping Chris Perez.

My AL only keeper deadline is tomorrow, we keep five, it's a 12-team 5x5 league. I have my keepers set as Aaron Hill-$15, Asdrubal Cabrera-$13, Carlos Quentin-$11, Chris Davis-$10 and Julio Borbon-$16....with Wood's injury I have a decision to make because I have Chris Perez at $5.  Would you throw one of those five back and keep him?  I was leaning toward (throwing back) Davis because of his risk and because the only depth at our auction is at 1B.  The top SSs are kept, the best available is Alexei Ramirez, so I want to hold onto Cabrera.  Also, much of the speed is kept outside of Ian Kinsler and Juan Pierre, so if I throw back Borbon I could end up chasing speed.  Do you think I should throw Davis back and keep Perez or just stick with what I have?

I'm not sure what Cinderella Story's inflation is, so I'm kind of groping around in the dark here. Given the low number of freezes, I'm going to assume a 10% inflation rate.

Based on where I have these hitters valued, with 10% inflation, their value would be:

• Borbon +5.46
• Cabrera +6.18
• Davis +4.91
• Hill +10.36
• Quentin +12.01

Based on their prices, Hill and Quentin are guys you shouldn't even think about throwing back. That leaves Borbon, Cabrera and Davis. Since Davis is the weakest projected freeze (in my opinion) and you say that 1B is a bountiful position, he's the guy you'd throw back if you were going to keep Perez.

Perez is the Indians closer until at least early May, since Kerry Wood is out for a minimum of six weeks, unless Perez blows up. Fixing a bid limit on Perez now is tough for a lot of reasons. Wood could return in early May...but he could also come back in June, July or not at all. Both the Indians and Wood have incentive for him to return, since Wood's a free agent (and the injury means that his 2011 option almost definitely won't vest), but if Perez is pitching well maybe the Indians will let him keep the role anyway.

All these variables mean that right now - if I had to put a bid on Chris Perez between now and your keeper deadline later today - I'd probably give him a $9 price. That puts his 10% inflation value at +4.46...just below Davis, and I'd recommend throwing him back solely based on price.

However, he's close enough to Davis where you still might decide that the value difference is marginal and keep Perez instead. Is your auction closer heavy or closer light? You already mentioned that 1B are plentiful. If you think you can get Davis or someone comparable for $10, you might keep Perez if there aren't many closers in your auction.

Given that you're in a 5x5 league, where saves and closers are worth a little less than in 4x4, I'd throw Perez back. But I agree with you that it's not a slam dunk decision.