Minor League Auctions - Thoughts and Strategies

Sorry for my long absence from contributions on the blog...you guys are all here to read Mike anyway, but don't worry...I only read his posts too :)

I spent last evening preparing for the minor league portion of my upcoming National League auction, and plan on spending some time with my American League this evening. We do not spend too much time with it, in part because of the vast diversity of rules between leagues, and in part because, frankly, there are some bigger value fish to fry. The minor league draft can, however, be a key component in your auction strategy.

For some context, both of my "home" leagues work the same way: 2 rounds (5-12, 4-1 in the first round and 12-1 in the second round); can keep up to 4 minor leaguers; if promoted at the auction, carry a salary of $5, which increases to $10 after the auction. Based on that, here are some generalized rules of thumb to keep in mind as your time on the clock arrives.

Rule 1: Rank more than the required number of minor league players. You spend a ton of time preparing for your auction; prepare for your minor league draft as well. Rank your players by preference, and make sure you rank enough players to account for some unexpected players making the roster due to injury.

Rule 2: Beware pitching prospects, particularly from Pick 7-15. I find two truisms about pitching prospects: a) they tend to be more variable and more unpredictable than hitting prospects; and b) they tend to contribute less in year 1 than a hitting prospect. Keep this in mind, particularly if you are looking to pick up someone who can help immediately that year, versus any following year.

Rule 3: Except in the deepest of leagues, try to avoid the very young prospects. If you drafted Jose Tabata umpteen years ago, you likely weren't able to get much for him in a trade, and you cried a bit when he was traded to the Pirates. The danger of drafting the 17 or 18 year old, particularly (again) pitchers, is that the payoff is likely years away.

Rule 4: Do not be afraid to prioritize instant help over longer term help, particularly in the latter stages of the minor league draft. You may be able to find someone you know will be up in the early part of the year, or perhaps a major league-caliber being sent down for rehab, etc., who will be back up soon after the season starts (pitchers in extended spring training are also a good example). You do not want to supplant a top tier pick in the minor league draft, but if you suspect a few of these players might be available later in the draft, it may put you in a position to grab a scrub in the auction and fill the slot from your minor league system without losing much in the way of stats.

Rule 5: Know your league. While Strasburg and Heyward and some others are no-brainers, the mid-tier is highly variable. Know who people in your league value and don't value, particularly if you have the strong team and know you will be in a position to move one of those minor leaguers as part of a dump deal. It could make a big difference for you in the end.

All in all, the simple advice is: don't just chuck some names out there and hope for the best. Analyze, prepare and maximize your value, both in the auction AND in the minor league draft...your team will be better for it this year and in years to come.