Inflation and Trade Evaluation

I got a little derailed by questions (which is great...I enjoy challenging questions!), but today will return back to my mini-series on inflation myths and facts. Today I'll be looking at trade evaluation.

This winter, I've sent offers to two owners that have been turned down using a rationale that goes something like this:

Your offer of Player X for Players A and B isn't terrible. But Player X is only a +5 on my sheet. Players A and B are a combined +8. It seems like your offer is a little light.

Let's assume for a moment that the other owner is right and I offered him a trade that was $3 light. Is he correct?

The answer depends on how expensive the players are in the deal and how much inflation there is in your league.

Example A: I own Player X at $12 and his projected value is $17. Players A and B are owned at $5 and their projected value is $13. Inflation is 10%.

In this example, the team with Player X will gain $6.09. The teams with players A and B gain $8.46. The trade is still bad for the team with players A and B, but it's not a $3 gain.

Example B: I own Player X at $28 and his projected value is $33. Players A and B are owned at $5 and their projected value is $13. Inflation is 30%.

In this example, the team with Player X gains $11.46. The teams with players A and B gain $9.15. This is now a good trade for the team getting Player X.

Q. Why are the two "+5" players not equal?

A. Every dollar you "protect" from the auction is a dollar that won't be impacted by inflation. A $28 keep has more power than a $5 keep in an inflation league. In a league with 30% inflation, those $23 extra dollars will only get you about $18 worth of value.

A simpler way to look at it is to ask yourself what would happen if you threw back that $28 player who is worth $33. With 30% inflation, his inflation par value is $43. Those two players who are worth $13 would have an inflation par value of $17.

If there are owners in your league who don't understand this concept, jump all over them...especially if your league has high inflation. Find out if they have any high priced players on the borderline that they think aren't worth keeping or are "only +1 or +2" players. Then pounce. If you can trade a $1 player whose projected value is $4 for a $30 player who is "only" worth $30, you've done quite well for yourself indeed.