Another popular myth in carryover leagues is that players who cost more than their projected bid limit drag inflation down.
Is this true? Once again, it depends on your league and your circumstances.
For example, let's say you own Miguel Cabrera at $40. Your projected bid limit for him is $35. Should you keep him?
With zero or low inflation, you obviously shouldn't. In a league with 10% inflation, Cabrera's inflation price is $38.50. At $40, he's $1.50 over par.
Once you get into leagues with higher inflation, though, Cabrera is a keep. With 20% inflation, Cabrera's par inflation bid is now $42. At 30%, his par bid is $45.50. In the league with 20% inflation, I'd keep him depending on how loose or tight prices generally are in my league. At 30%, I'd definitely keep him.
This is all simple enough. The mythology comes in when a tout says, "keeping Cabrera over his raw bid price lowers inflation."
Let's use the 30% inflation example. If your league has $1,820 to spend on $1,400 worth of talent, your inflation rate is an even 30%. Adding Cabrera as a $40 freeze to that mix leaves your league with $1,780 to spend on $1,365 worth of talent. The inflation rate "jumps" from 30% to 30.4%.
That doesn't sound like a lot, but if every other owner in your league is hep to this strategy, a few of these players can send the inflation rate up in a hurry.
The most important thing you should do before your auction is try and project your league's freezes to determine what the inflation rate will be. This will give you a rough idea of where the inflation will sit. More importantly, it will tell you if Cabrera is a keep or someone you should throw back. Even at a $40 salary, he's not someone you should just automatically toss back into the pool.
1 comment:
Not particular to this post, but distantly related: I'm starting a 3/4 season league this year, for guys who are in other, full-time keeper leagues and long to have a full-blown, start-over auction each year.
Our league ends the regular season at the all-star break, takes that week off, and then goes head-to-head playoffs after that.
Here's the question: How do you value guys like Reyes and Beltran in that scenario? In a traditional roto league they'd be worth the % of their value based on when they should play. (For example, if they miss 20% of the season, take 80% of their auction value and use that)
But, when you play head-to-head in the playoffs, if I have Reyes at that time, I have a FULL-VALUE Reyes when it matters most. There's gotta be some adjustment for that, right?
Also, it's an 11-team NL only draft with 6 making the playoffs, so there's a little more leeway to take a guy like him than if say, only 4 made the playoffs.
Just looking for some insight.
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