OH ME, OH MY
Alex Rodriguez $41, Evan Longoria $38.
Can A-Rod put up another monster season, like he did in 2005 and then again in 2007? Forty-one dollars is going to next to impossible for him to reach in 5x5, but he did run last year coming off of hip surgery and the power didn't go anywhere. This is a tough bid for A-Rod, but I'd pay in the mid $30s. Longoria, on the other hand, is overpriced here. He's 24, and I wouldn't put another step forward past him, but to earn $38 he's going to have to go nuts...and run a lot more than he has thus far.
THE ROARING 20s
Chone Figgins $28, Gordon Beckham $24, Michael Young $21, Adrian Beltre $20.
Figgins earned that $28 last year, but I suspect that moving from L.A. to Seattle will depress both his run and RBI totals...even if he does walk 100+ times again. Beckham's price seems outlandish, but pushing his truncated '09 to 550 AB makes him a $19 player. It's obviously not that simple, and I wouldn't be surprised if Beckham has a bit of a consolidation season. Twenty dollars seems like a more reasonable stopping point, tops. This looks like a great price for Young to me. He earned $24 in 5x5 last year and was only $2 behind Longoria and $1 behind Kevin Youkilis. He obviously doesn't have as much upside as those guys, but should put in another solid $20 season. Beltre can earn this if healthy, but that to me is a much bigger rub than most believe. I'm not convinced that he's an automatic bounce back candidate, and think his price belongs in the group below.
THE MID-TIER
Kevin Kouzmanoff $16, Alex Gordon $15, Jhonny Peralta $13, Mark Teahen $13, Brandon Wood $13.
Kouzmanoff is a fundamentally bad baseball player who should still be good for $14-16 earnings in Roto if he's healthy. He should score more than 50 runs this season just by showing up. Gordon broke his thumb and will miss at least 3-4 weeks of action. I suspect a number of people were counting on him for a breakout this year, but even before the injury I would have tried to sneak him for $2-3 less if that were my hope. Peralta was just awful last year, and his BABIP doesn't point to someone hitting in bad luck. His HR/FB% was pretty low, so maybe he'll get some HR power back, but he's a fundamentally terrible hitter, so don't be surprised if he doesn't. Teahen is yet another hitter who I think owners are expecting big things from with the move from Kansas City to Chicago, but there's a limit to what he can do based on his ability and his G/F rate. Wood keeps getting paid year after year after year, regardless of his role. This is the year he's supposed to finally have the opportunity to play, but his MLEs still point to an ugly .230 batting average in The Show. I think he'll got an honest shot at the job, but with Maicer Izturis on the team, I don't think Mike Scioscia will hesitate to pull the plug if things are going badly.
THE SECOND MID-TIER
Garrett Atkins $11, Edwin Encarnacion $9, Brandon Inge $7, Jake Fox $7.
Eleven dollars seemed expensive to me for Atkins...a hitter who flopped in Coors. Camden Yards is another HR friendly venue, but I'm still not sold that Atkins bat speed is going to miraculously come back in the incredibly tough A.L. East. Encarnacion is already banged up this spring, which isn't a good sign at all. Like Atkins, maybe he'll bounce back, but given his track record seems like a terrible bet. Despite the poor average, I like Inge better than Atkins or Encarnacion. He's not going to hit 27 HR again, but 15-20 doesn't seem out of the question. If you can survive the bad average, Inge isn't a bad target at a modest price. I'm assuming that this price for Fox thinks that he'll supplant Daric Barton at first base for the A's. I doubt that's going to happen. I like Fox as an all purpose bat off the bench for Oakland, but would rather pay $2-3 and hope for the big pay-off than pay this much for a back-up.
THE CRAPSHOOT (AND THE $4 GUYS)
Brendan Harris $4, Ty Wigginton $4, Mike Lowell $3, Brett Wallace $2, Josh Fields $1, Bill Hall $1, Joe Crede $1.
Look no further than the bottom of the pile to see how weak corner infield has become in the American League. There aren't any starters lurking here except Harris...who better get most of the AB at 3B to make him worth it at this price. Lowell will work out great if the Red Sox find a taker for him; everyone else here is a play on other kinds of speculation that may or may not work.
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