THE LEGEND
Derek Jeter $30.
Even in the free spending CBS league, Jeter got a pay cut from what he earned in 2009, albeit a relatively modest one. Conventional wisdom would tell you that he's likely to regress at baseball age 36 at a demanding position, so you might want to give Jeet a more steep pay cut than this. However, betting against players like Jeter is hard. He already defied conventional wisdom last year, and it wouldn't surprise me if he put up a $28-30 season in 2010.
THE NEXT BEST THINGS
Jason Bartlett $21, Asdrubal Cabrera $20, Elvis Andrus $19, Alexei Ramirez $19.
Was Bartlett's career year last year real? You'll probably have to pay this to find out. He should keep running, so even if the power regresses somewhat I think he's still capable of earning in the low 20s. The BABIP was very high in '09, so a .280-.290 batting average might be more likely. Cabrera earned $21 last year and at 24 there's more improvement likely. The big question for Cabrera buyers is whether or not the power develops. If he can crack double-digit HR, there could be potential for a $25 season lurking here. Right now, Andrus is a player who is far more valuable in Roto than reality because of the speed. His 702 OPS ranked 16th among 19 Major League shortstop qualifiers in 2009. While I think that Andrus could be a superstar long term, his offensive ceiling might be 2-3 years away. Pay for the speed but don't pay for more than that. Ramirez isn't exactly a sleeper, but he is a great post hype candidate. After going for $30 in CBS last year, he fell down the board quite a bit, getting paid $1 more than what he earned last year. Given that last year might be as bad as it will get, paying for last year and hoping for more isn't a bad play here.
SOLID STARTERS
Miguel Tejada $16, J.J. Hardy $13, Marco Scutaro $13, Erick Aybar $11.
Without much fanfare, Tejada was a poor man's Jeter in 2009: putting up a bounce back season at the unlikely age of 35. He's swinging at a lot more pitches now, but a shorter stroke has resulted in an incredible contact rate regardless of where pitchers are throwing the ball. I anticipate Tejada having a harder time in the tougher American League/A.L. East. He is moving to HR friendly Camden Yards, but he was helped out last year by Minute Maid so a HR spike seems unlikely. Hardy's poor BABIP may explain away some of his .229 batting average, but he was just bad last year. His K% spiked and he looked lost at the plate most of the year. He still showed some pop, so if you get him cheap enough and don't mind the average hit, he's worth a gamble at about half this price. It's hard to trust Scutaro's Age 33 career year, but it was only his second full season as an every day player, and he's always been a tremendous contact hitter. He's moving to a better park in Fenway, and while anticipating another 100 run season might be asking for too much, there's no reason he can't put up another quiet $15 season. Aybar took a big step forward last year, but given his modest SB success rate, it's hard to fathom him ever reaching the steals potential every one once thought was a given. He's still young, and should be a solid regular, but I wouldn't bet on a breakout. That being said, he earned $19 last year, and this price is a bargain for a guy who should be playing every day for the Halos.
THE CHEAP STARTERS
Cliff Pennington $5, Alex Gonzalez $4.
The best thing that can be said about Pennington is that - barring a disaster - he should be the A's starting shortstop all year long. This price might be a couple of bucks light, but Pennington has put up a 720 OPS in the minors over 1,852 AB across five seasons, including an uninspiring 712 OPS in Sacramento. He put up enough home runs and steals in Oakland to excite some touts, but he did a good chunk of that feasting on weaker September pitching. His SB% rates were great last year in the minors, but the A's won't let him run if he mirrors his 7/12 success rate this year. My best case for Pennington is that he steals 20-25 and his batting average doesn't kill you. Gonzalez might return to his 2007 power rates, but that's a big maybe. He's the kind of player who could fall off the map at Age 33 or kill your batting average if he plays every day. If you buy him, hope that John McDonald spells him enough so that you get the odd home run without the ugly .230 batting average.
THE ENDGAME
Willie Bloomquist $2, Mike Aviles $1, Yuniesky Betancourt $1, Cesar Izturis $1, Jed Lowrie $1, Jack Wilson $1.
I could have included Izturis and Wilson in the cheap starters group above, since they will be starting. If you buy them, hope that Wilson moves the chains enough in RBI and runs without killing your batting average and hope that Izturis runs, since that's where almost all of his value rests. Betancourt might wind up on the bench if the Royals move Alberto Callaspo to short this year. Bloomquist is coming off of off-season surgery to both knees. Even if he runs, you have to think that he won't get 400+ plate appearances this year and get as many SB opportunities...right? Aviles and Lowrie are probably the longest shots to contribute here. Scoot's contract will probably keep Lowrie on the bench or push him back to the minors, while Aviles isn't supposed to be back until mid-year and it doesn't seem like there's room for him at the inn.
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