Adjusting Value for Leagues with Play-offs

andypro7 has a great question.

I'm starting a 3/4 season league this year...Our league ends the regular season at the all-star break, takes that week off, and then goes head-to-head playoffs after that....How do you value guys like (Jose) Reyes and (Carlos) Beltran in that scenario? In a traditional roto league they'd be worth the % of their value based on when they should play. (For example, if they miss 20% of the season, take 80% of their auction value and use that)...But, when you play head-to-head in the playoffs, if I have Reyes at that time, I have a FULL-VALUE Reyes when it matters most. There's gotta be some adjustment for that, right?

Andy's assumptions are all correct for the most part. If you expect Beltran to miss 20% of the season in a traditional Roto league, you'd likely take his raw bid and tick it down about 20%. You might want to tick it down about 25% since there's risk involved with Beltran, but I agree with the general principle.

I would also agree that some adjustment should be made to compensate for the fact that if andy's play-offs start in July, then he will presumably have a 100% healthy player when his play-offs start.

One thing to keep in mind, though, is that since your regular season ends at the All-Star Break, you won't be getting 80% of a season from Beltran. Since the Mets play 88 games before the All-Star Break, you'll only be getting about 64% of a season from Beltran (assuming he misses the same number of games).

If your raw, healthy bid on Beltran had been $28, you would have dropped him down to $22 in a full season league. In this format, his non-playoff bid would drop to $18.

You could add $4 to Beltran and push him back up to $22. If everyone else is expecting 64% of a Pre All-Star break from Beltran, your bid is still aggressive because you're bidding for 80% of his Pre All-Star playing time. You get Beltran (you hope) and have him for your play-offs at full steam (you also hope).

You could push Beltran up further. However, you want to be careful with this approach. If you push Beltran (and players like him) too far up your pricing scale, you might not make the play-offs at all. You can't rob too much value out of your 85-90 game season. If your team doesn't make the play-offs, overpaying for Beltran for a play-off push will become a terrible play. You have to get to the prom before you can ask the cute girl in the corner to dance.