Free Agent Scrubs vs. Endgame Scrubs

Recently, I looked at the ROI in the endgame by position in the American League. My conclusion was that middle infield was indeed pretty strong last year, outfield was not as strong, and corner infielders were extremely weak.

Roll2's theory was that middle infield in-season replacements were more likely to come from players we bought in the auction.

This might (and I emphasize might) be due to the way MLB teams make in-season starting lineup changes. I think they are much more like to fill from within the existing 25-man roster at MI than they are at OF, where they are more likely to bring up a minor leaguer, or make a trade.....Thus, the utility IF you take during dollar days may have a better shot at eventually starting than a teams' 4th OF you take to fill your fifth OF slot.

The easiest way to test this theory is to look at how many AB the endgame players got by position versus how many AB the free agents picked up.

Top 5 2009 A.L. $1-3 hitters vs FA by AB

Pos.	$1-3	FA	"Winner"
C	1531	841	Auction
1B*	437	604	Free Agent
2B**	1688	1108	Auction
SS	1789	1289	Auction
3B	819	998	Free Agent
OF	1118	1794	Free Agent

*Only three 1B with AB at auction
**Only four 2B with AB at auction

This rudimentary analysis would seem to support roll2's theory. Not a single OF cracked 300 AB; Marcus Thames' 258 were the most of any $1-3 player auctioned. On the other hand, seven middle infielders purchased on the cheap at auction got 300 AB or more.

I anticipated that one of the reasons the auction totals would be so high was because middle infielders cost less than outfielders or corners, and some projected starters would fall into the crapshoot. However, Alberto Callaspo was the only preseason starter who fell into the $1-3 range; everyone else was a projected bench player who excelled.

Top 5 2009 N.L. $1-3 hitters vs FA by AB

Pos.	$1-3	FA	"Winner"
C	1564	1238	Auction
1B*	542	871	Free Agent
2B	1618	1434	Auction
SS	1473	1741	Free Agent
3B	1696	1034	Auction
OF	1945	2004	Free Agent

*Only four 1B with AB at auction

Since the National League had different results, it would stand to reason that this chart would look somewhat different. There was a lot more production across the board, but it also looked like you could get a middle infield FAAB replacement pretty easily, compared to the A.L. There was also a lot of value in the outfield both on the free agent side and on the $1-3 crapshoot side.

This is what I expect to see when I say or imply that there is more value in the endgame in the OF. Plenty of fourth OF in the N.L. wind up getting a decent number of AB...even if they ultimately don't wind up starting. This doesn't seem to hold in the A.L. roll2 is correct; this phenomenon would require more than one year of data before jumping to any conclusions, but it is definitely something worth revisiting next winter.