Like most Rotisserie addicts, I spend w-a-a-a-a-a-a-y too much time thinking about relief pitchers. In particular, I spend far too much time thinking about guys who start the year as middle relievers and become closers.
Andrew Bailey and J.P. Howell are pitchers I've spent a lot of time mulling over lately. Both on pace to earn $30+ in 4x4 leagues and as a result have been absurdly valuable...especially when you consider that even in extremely deep leagues neither pitcher was owned.
I don't think anyone could have expected Bailey to be the closer in March unless lightning struck most of the A's bullpen. Bailey looked like a guy who was slated for middle relief. This is a case where the Ron Shandler argument of looking at skills over role would have paid off big time, but I think I'll save that for another post.
Troy Percival was the closer in Tampa Bay to start the year and it looked like Rays manager Joe Madden was going to keep him there all year. Unlike a lot of managers, Madden actually seems to get the fact that the three most important outs aren't often in the ninth inning, and as long as Percival didn't completely blow up, he'd be OK in the 9th.
Of course Percival completely blew up and got hurt.
It's a long season and we have short memories. It's easy to assume that Howell simply was anointed the closer and run with the job, but after Percival's fifth save on May 6 the following pitchers got saves for the Rays:
May 7: Joe Nelson
May 9: Lance Cormier
May 13: J.P. Howell
May 16: Nelson
May 17: Percival
May 22: Dale Thayer
May 29: Randy Choate
May 30: Choate.
There are some red herrings here; a couple of these saves are of the three inning variety or came after the Rays opened the floodgates. Still, not even the Roto touts could avoid talking up almost all of these pitchers (with the possible exception of Cormier) as potential Rays closers.
Meanwhile, Howell finished May with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.130 WHIP in 25 2/3 IP. He wasn't dominant, but those numbers were more than solid.
We all know the rest of the story. Howell essentially took over as the closer in June (despite some touts talking about a committee where even Choate would get saves). Howell doesn't have a lot of saves but his ERA/WHIP have pushed him over $30.
Bailey was an easier play than Howell, but we always have to be on the lookout for relievers like this. You can't fill your roster with fliers like Howell, but you'd better have a couple.
1 comment:
After dumping my AL-only rotisserie team last year to get myself into good shape going into this one, I thought I had done well to go into this year's auction with Frank Francisco, Jose Arredondo and Chris Ray. I thought I needed a couple of things to break right for me, and I could compete in saves. Boy was I wrong.
However, as karma would have it, I snatched up JP Howell on May 20th after someone had dropped him the week before. Later in the year, I traded Francisco on a 5b contract for Mariano Rivera on an expiring one. I'm now very competitive is saves, and cruising to a win in the league itself.
And, to come full circle, I picked up Arredondo this week in the FAAB as a play for next year. I think he's one that's out there who will definitely get a chance to save games on a good team one day.
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