More e-mails from the trade front

To some, these posts might seem like a way of posting something easy. However, there's something to be said for providing insights into a Rotisserie negotiation.

First, here is what I was offered:

how about: (Brian) Fuentes, (Jason) Frasor, (Carlos) Gomez, (Esteban) German and (Alex) Gonzalez for (Mike) Cuddyer, (Nick) Swisher, (Marco) Scutaro and two pitchers you have chance to make big run in saves, might get a vulture or two to hold me off in wins, and improve your ERA and WHIP, though obviously innings make this a small gain. and if you're lucky Gomez could give you a crucial few steals more than Scutaro. I gain power and fill three holes while paring enough salary to activate (Gil) Meche (another desperation measure) and make a pickup on FAAB

This was my reply:

I hear you on the first point. The problem is that there are good risks and bad risks as you know. Your argument would probably have more sway with someone...who is far more emotional and far less analytical. In theory, the "risk" we took was not dumping on August 1 and deciding to go for it.

From that standpoint, my chances of winning (or - realistically - finishing 3rd) hinge on two of the three things below happening:

a) a big RBI burst where I can pass most of the teams ahead of me.
b) a monster run by CC (Sabathia) and Felix (Hernandez), continued quality innings from (C.J.) Wilson, (Matt) Guerrier and (Matt) Thornton and neutral innings (at worst) from the rest of my staff.
c) a resurgent (B.J.) Upton running like mad combined with (Derek) Jeter, (Vernon) Wells, (Jason) Bay and anyone else I have who runs running moderately.

I also need:

d) (the two best teams) to linger around 70 points.

a, b, and c all look like they're going to be more difficult to attain but - of the three - c) looks like the scenario that is fading fast for me unless I magically pick it up and have a 10-15 SB week this week.

So if I trade you a ton of ribbies I'm conceding one of the three things I need to happen without addressing b or c.

I don't think the saves play is realistic at this point, so therefore is not an acceptable risk. Assuming (Brian) Fuentes and (Jason) Frasor both save 15 apiece (that's not a realistic assumption, but I'll assume it), then I finish with 55 saves. That means that I'll pass one owner and maybe I'll tie another...It's more likely that I pass just the one owner...and making a trade like this to gain one point doesn't make sense.