Friday, July 17, 2009

Second Half Acquisition Targets: N.L. Pitchers

Today's installment of this week's four-part series focuses on National League starting pitchers. Remember, this is a list of realistic trade targets in a deep N.L.-only league. Ricky Nolasco might be a good candidate to keep improving, but given what most teams invested in him at the beginning of the year, his perceived value has barely changed, making him an unrealistic trade target in nearly every deep league.

Jorge de la Rosa. 6 W, 96 2/3 IP, 5.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 99 K.
Fangraphs
identified de la Rosa as a potential breakout candidate back in mid-May but the good interior numbers still haven't translated well into actual stats. Like Fangraphs, I think it's possible that de la Rosa could still have a bit of a breakout candidate in him. His July numbers thus far have been great (albeit in a very limited sample size) and he's worth watching to see if he can keep it up. 5x5 owners can at least hang their hat on those whiffs if they do try to trade for de la Rosa.

Chad Gaudin. 4 W, 87 1/3 IP, 4.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 93 K.
Billy Beane once called Gaudin "the second most talented pitcher" on the A's staff (behind then-fellow-A Rich Harden). Like de la Rosa, he's striking out over a batter an inning, but unlike de la Rosa he's keeping the ball in the park and proving to be very hard to hit (Petco certainly helps, of course). Gaudin's key to succeeding is the walks; with 48 of them so far Gaudin has little margin for error. But like Beane once did, I still believe in Gaudin's raw stuff, like the park he pitches in, and recognize the fact that he's still only 26 years old: an age where some pitchers are still learning.

Jason Hammel 5 W, 89 1/3 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 61 K.
It's slim pickings in the National League for "buy" pitchers. Hammel is really a "buy" in leagues with match-up play only. He has a 7.62 ERA at Coors but a 1.97 ERA away. If you aren't in a match-up league, this radical split makes him passable if you have to start him every week, but you'd better have some horses in the front of your rotation.

Paul Maholm 6 W, 109 2/3 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 66 K.
Maholm was a little lucky last year but has been extremely unlucky in 2009. He's kept the ball on the ground and has done an even better job of keeping the ball in the park, but all he has to show for it are the measly ERA/WHIP you see above. I wouldn't expect miracles from Maholm, but he is due some better luck, and having Jack Wilson instead of Ramon Vazquez at SS isn't going to hurt either.

Craig Stammen 2 W 60 2.3 IP, 4.45 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 27 K.
You can forget about this guy in 5x5 leagues, but Stammen is useful in 4x4. That K/IP rate is borderline, but Stammen keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't walk a lot of batters. He's on a pretty decent streak at the moment, and I think that Stammen can be a useful #4 or #5 major league starter. In other words, he can probably maintain these numbers despite the low K rates. Keep in mind that Stammen has gone through an adjustment period at almost every level he's pitched, so the K rates could actually increase to closer to his minor league totals.


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