This is the conclusion of the four part series of "buy low" candidates in deep A.L. and N.L.-only leagues. Tonight I'll look at A.L. pitchers. Once again, these are pitchers who might be flying under the radar or are somewhat undervalued due to the expectation of an eventual fall. These are five pitchers I think might actually keep it up...or at least not crater completely.
Brian Bannister 6 W, 98 1/3 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 62 K.
Bannister has flown so far under the radar that he's only owned in 34% of CBS Sportsline leagues despite being on pace to earn $17 at the All-Star break. He looks much more like the pitcher who fooled hitters in 2007 than the guy who looked like a fraud in 2008, and the numbers back this up. Bannister's getting more outs on the ground, has a lower LD% than he did in 2008, and a HR% that is more in line with his career stats. Bannister's stuff isn't overpowering enough to shield him from a bad outing now and again, but he should be a solid option in A.L.-only leagues.
Brad Bergesen 6 W, 104 1/3 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 53 K.
2009 was supposed to be a consolidation year for the Orioles pitching staff: a season where they threw a bunch of retreads out there, hoped for the best, and waited for their elite prospects to show up early to mid-2010. However, this guy has probably earned himself a slot in 2010 and has pitched pretty well this season so far. A lot of analysts are pointing at him as a second half collapse candidate but I don't agree. Bergesen is good at changing speeds, good at keeping the ball down, and has done a fairly decent job keeping the ball in the park in very HR-friendly park. The ability that Bergesen has to change speeds on his fastball is barely noted in the Roto community at large, but that 5 MPH range of movement makes it very hard to guess fastball on him. I'll bet that he puts up something closer to a 4.00 ERA in the second half but that he keeps the WHIP in a good place. I won't be surprised to see Bergesen finish with a $15 season.
Jose Contreras 4 W, 73 1/3 IP, 4.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 55 K
Contreras is another pitcher where the expectation is that he'll fail, but so far he's been incredibly dominant in his return from the minors. He has his highest K/IP rate since 2005, when he posted a 3.61 ERA in his first full season for the White Sox. I don't expect him to keep up this stellar rate-of-return but like most of the pitchers on this list think that Contreras will be solid from here on out.
Carl Pavano 8 W, 107 IP, 5.13 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 77 K.
It's probably best not to look back at Pavano's Yankees numbers and instead just focus on what he's done for Cleveland. Despite the so-so numbers (he's on pace to earn $5), Pavano's been the victim of two outings where he's allowed 9 ER. He has some of the velocity back on his fastball that was missing in The Big Apple, but the key to Pavano's success this year is that he's thrown more off-speed offerings and has reached that stage in his career where he's trying to keep hitters off balance. The result is a pitcher who should continue to be effective as long as he's healthy. I don't expect Pavano to be a worldbeater, but that 5.13 ERA is not indicative of Pavano's performance thus far.
Glen Perkins 4 W, 78 1/3 IP, 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 36 K.
I'm aware of the arguments against Perkins: he doesn't have a dominant strikeout pitch so when he gets in trouble hitters pretty much can tee off against him. However, he simply doesn't walk anyone, and he's throwing a biting slider this year that replaced a curve that wasn't quite as effective. He started throwing the slider mid-year 2008 and it's an adjustment that has mostly fallen under the radar, even the usually savvy Baseball Prospectus missed this in their write-up of Perkins in this year's book. Again, I wouldn't expect miracles here, but Perkins could put up something between a 3.8 and a 4 and be a viable Roto option going forward.
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