Monday, July 06, 2009

N.L. FAAB Log: July 6, 2009

Garrett Jones $12. Other bids $12, $5.
Jones is one of those minor league 1B types who hit for not quite enough power, not quite enough batting average, and strike out just a little too much to ever get an opportunity. However, it looks like the Pirates are committed to giving Jones a look in the outfield over some of the sad sack options they've been shoving out there all year long. He's too old to be considered a prospect, and despite the .307 BA in AAA this year he projects out more as a .230-.250 hitter in the bigs, but the combined power/PT makes him worth a solid bid this week...he's already got two HR since his promotion.

Ryan Sadowski $4.
He obviously isn't going to throw up a shutout every time out, but unlike Rotoworld I don't think that Sadowski is simply an accident waiting to happen. While his 4.15 G/F ratio in his first two MLB starts is obviously unsustainable, Sadowski did have a decent G/F ratio in the minors this year and could keep his ERA OK if he keeps the ball on the ground. I'm not saying that he's going to be an awesome SP, but he could be league average or slightly below and with the Giants playing well Sadowski could stick and win a few starts. Tread with caution, but don't be afraid to tread, in other words.

Joe Thurston $3.
I speculated last week that Thurston would get buried on the bench with the Cardinals acquisition of Mark DeRosa, but with DeRosa's wrist injury lingering (and possibly being more serious than initially believed), Thurston has gotten most of the starts at 3B this week. He's still having a bad year and is only an option right now if he's playing every day.

Will Venable $2.
Venable's swing-for-the-fences approach worked well at AAA Portland this year but not so much for the Padres, where he has an unacceptable 14 whiffs in 37 AB with next to nothing to show for it. With Scott Hairston getting shipped out of San Diego tonight, Venable has an opportunity to pick up some AB, but Kyle Blanks is probably a better bet to capitalize on the opportunity. I'd stay away from Venable until he starts hitting.

Josh Banks $1.
After a solid start against the Astros earlier in the week, Banks got pounded by the Dodgers today, allowing 3 HR in 4 1/3 IP while failing to strike out a batter. Banks gets by with an assortment of junk (including the odd knuckler). He's an entertaining pitcher to watch if you don't own him, but owning him probably requires a bottle of antacid and smelling salts. I'd avoid even in match-ups.

Bobby Parnell $1.
I wrote about Parnell earlier this week as part of a piece on N.L. middle relievers.

Rodrigo Lopez $1.
Lopez turned in a solid outing as a fill-in starter against the Mets this weekend, but that hasn't seemed like much of a task lately with half of their line-up out with injuries. The 33-year-old hasn't had a decent season since he pitched for the Orioles in 2004 and despite solid minor league numbers seems like a poor bet going forward. He could also be a placeholder for Carlos Carrasco, so don't make a big investment even if you do decide to invest.

Brett Carroll $1.
With the Marlins within striking distance of first place, a fire sale looks unlikely, so Carroll's probably going to be a back-up the rest of the way. That makes him a borderline player to own even in very deep leagues, as he doesn't offer quite enough power even as a 5th Roto OF.

Mike Hampton $1.
Hampton came off the DL this past week and was lucky enough to ease in with a start at San Diego. It was a solid start, but Hampton's a poor bet for success and a potential WHIP killer for your team. If you are going to pick him up, this is probably the week to own him: he's facing the Pirates and Nationals in a two-start week.

Robinzon Diaz $1.
With Ryan Doumit starting a rehab assignment on Friday, the clock is ticking for Diaz and any Roto relevance he might have. Since my last write-up on Diaz, he's gone 10-for-33 with 4 RBI, no HR, and no SB. The .303 BA has been fine, but Diaz has done exactly what I would have expected: provide next to no value, even at catcher. With Doumit coming back soon, feel free to drop Diaz if you haven't already done so.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kelly Johnson hit the waiver wire in my deep, 12-team, NL-only. Should I acquire him? Is there a second-half turnaround in store for him?

Toz said...

Kelly Johnson should swing and miss more often. That sounds absurd, but when you look at his numbers in 2009, perhaps it is sound advice. He is sporting a .238 BABIP (well off his .330 and
.344 numbers of the last 2 years); a line drive percentage of 19.5% (well off last year's 24.5%, but better than his 2007 numbers); a significantly increased fly ball rate; and a significantly increased contact percentage.

Okay Toz, what did all that mean? Well, in my opinion, it means that Kelly is swinging at too many pitches and making weak contact with pitchers pitches. A .238 BABIP is very unlucky, but not outrageous in the context of Turner Field and his big fly ball percentage jump. We knew that Kelly could not continue to post BABIP of .344 and .330, but I do not expect him to continue to put up a .238 either.

If you have a spot to acquire Johnson, I would put the claim in on him. If he is nursing an injury, which is a possibility, so be it. Otherwise, he's a player somewhere between his very good 2007 and his not so good 2009.