Dumping Wins and Whiffs: The Cheap Closers

This is the second of a three part series reviewing the feasibility of dumping wins and saves in a competitive 5x5 Rotisserie League. The general premise of these posts centers around the idea that you would want to buy:

• a $20-25 starting pitcher to anchor your staff
• two closers not exceeding $30 in value.
• six $1 pitchers (two starters and four relievers)

Yesterday, I looked at the starting pitchers who went for an average salary of $20-25 in the three "expert leagues": LABR, Tout Wars, and CBS Sportsline. Today I'll look at the cheap closers.

Major League Closers @ $13 or Less, 2009
(games played through July 22)

Player	IP	H/W	ER	K	W	SV	WHIP	ERA	Sal	$	+/-
Frank Francisco	27 2/3	26	7	32	2	15	0.94	2.28	$15	$21	6
Brandon Lyon	45 1/3	54	18	26	3	0	1.19	3.57	$11	$10	-1
Brandon Morrow	46	82	27	45	0	6	1.78	5.28	$10	-$2	-12
George Sherrill	39 1/3	46	11	38	0	20	1.17	2.52	$9	$22	13
Troy Percival	11 1/3	19	8	7	0	6	1.68	6.35	$9	$1	-8
Francisco Cordero	38	42	7	32	1	22	1.11	1.66	$15	$21	6
Heath Bell	39 1/3	43	9	46	3	24	1.09	2.06	$15	$24	9
Brian Wilson	42 1/3	50	16	47	2	24	1.18	3.40	$14	$20	6
Mike Gonzalez	44 1/3	55	16	57	3	9	1.24	3.25	$13	$14	1
Trevor Hoffman	28 1/3	29	6	21	1	22	1.02	1.91	$13	$18	5
Joel Hanrahan	39 2/3	76	31	43	1	5	1.92	7.03	$12	-$5	-17
Matt Lindstrom	29	55	21	26	2	14	1.90	6.52	$12	$3	-9
Huston Street	41 1/3	39	12	47	3	24	0.94	2.61	$10	$25	15
Chris Perez	23 2/3	32	11	30	1	1	1.35	4.18	$9	$4	-5
average (14)	35 1/3	46	14	36	2	14	1.31	3.63	$12	$13	1

I looked at 2008's crop of cheap closers back in February, and it once again seems like you're better off with the National League crop than the American League one.

In the A.L., if you didn't get both Sherrill and Francisco, you were in trouble. But in the N.L., there were several permutations that could have worked.

The average number of saves for this group tells us that this proposed strategy won't work without some kind of help. Fourteen saves per closer means 28 saves for two...which will fall well short of what you would need to win the category. Yes, if you got Street and Bell you were off to the races, but not so much if you got Hanrahan and Perez.

So can the strategy work? In the final installment of the series, I'll look at a way that it just might.