Monday, July 27, 2009

A.L. FAAB Log: July 27, 2009

Adam LaRoche $39. Other bids: $36, $32, $16, $10, $3.
The top three bids might seem extreme given that LaRoche won't be playing everyday for the Red Sox, but they're a recognition that it's increasingly unlikely that anyone solid from the National League will be coming into the A.L. this year. LaRoche does have 20-25 HR pop, so even as a part-timer he could hit a few HR down the stretch. He's worth it in deep A.L.-only leagues, but if you're contending hopefully you've dumped into something better by now.

Michael Saunders $11. Other bids: $11, $11, $8.
Did the Twilight Zone theme just pop into your head too? The $11 bids are all non-contender bids, so this is presumably what all of these teams hope the keeper price is for Saunders if things go well. The 21-year-old was enjoying a bit of a breakthrough campaign this year at AAA Tacoma, though a 922 OPS at Tacoma must be taken with a grain of salt. Saunders' upside is as a 20/20 player, but he's probably going to take his lumps if he plays every day in the majors at this point; he's still somewhat raw. He will start over Ryan Langerhans for now and so he should be picked up if you need an OF.

Matt Palmer $5.
After being pulled from the Halos rotation in late June, Palmer was inserted this weekend for a spot start against the Twins and performed capably. He could stick in the rotation over Sean O'Sullivan, but unless you're making a hard push for wins probably isn't a good play. He's very hittable, and as I predicted back in May he came crashing down to Earth hard in June. He could get a start this week but the Angels might also opt to skip him.

Cla Meredith $4.
Danys Baez $1.
These look like flier bids in case George Sherrill is traded this week. I suppose it's possible that Meredith could close - despite all of the Roto scuttlebutt about Jim Johnson closing, the Orioles have kept quiet - but it's also possible that Sherrill doesn't get moved. I suppose Meredith is worth the flier, but given his 1.6 WHIP there are no guarantees. In Baez's case, he's also a free agent after this year and could get moved himself. He was great in April but since then has been inconsistent. The Catch-22 is that it hurts his trade value, which makes him more likely to stay with the O's, but since his raw numbers aren't that good it's less likely that he'll close if Sherrill gets moved.

Tommy Hunter $3.

Add Tommy Hunter to the growing number of Ranger pitchers that is outperforming expectations and defying his peripherals. I like Hunter's poise and confidence on the mound, but this is Major League Baseball, not a beauty pageant. Hunter's peripherals probably speak more to a 4.00 ERA than a 2.11, and the fact that he's a flyball pitcher in Texas mean that it could be even worse than that. Scott Feldman keeps defying the odds, so maybe you're thinking that Hunter will too. I suppose he could, but it's a poor bet to make.

Darren Oliver $1.
Oliver continues to put up solid numbers out of the bullpen for the Angels. He started briefly early in the year when the Angels were desperate, but Oliver's likely to stay in the pen for now. His value is limited to very deep leagues.

Brandon League $1.
With Scott Downs struggling at the moment, it's possible that League could be in line for some save opportunities. After a putrid June, he's been torrid in July (1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 9 2/3 IP) and his stuff looks sharp. I'd guess that Jason Frasor is next in line for saves, but League is always worth keeping an eye on, particularly if you're playing for '10.

David Hernandez $1.

Despite a low whiff rate, Hernandez continues to put up solid numbers. For his latest trick, he shut down a solid Red Sox line-up today at Fenway Park. Unlike Hunter, I like Hernandez's chances for long-term success despite his poor peripherals. He had higher K/IP rates in the minors than he does in the majors - which sometimes means that the results will take some time to catch up with the stuff - he hits 93 MPH on the gun, and his stuff looks legit. The scouts have never loved him, but it's definitely well past the time to pick him up if he's just sitting out there in your Roto league.

Ryan Freel. Claimed by 11th (tie), 9th (tie), 8th, and 3rd place teams.
With Jose Guillen due to miss significant time, Freel is one of the candidates to pick up some playing time in Guillen's absence. His game is speed, but he has only one SB to date. That could change, but I'd hold off on picking Freel up until he starts running again. Even the Royals may eventually sit him if he doesn't run, since he really doesn't offer much else at this point in his career.

Nomar Garciaparra. Claimed by 9th (tie) and 6th (tie) place teams.
Nomar is splitting the 1B AB with Daric Barton (mostly) while Jason Giambi's on the DL. He hasn't been that productive this year and is only worth the bid if you're truly desperate.

Ramon Santiago. Claimed by 6th (tie) place team.
See July 13. Adam Everett continues to get most of the AB at SS, and Santiago hasn't really done much when he's started in the last two weeks.

3 comments:

Rodger A. Payne said...

No one in your league bid on Eric Patterson? That's interesting.

Mike Gianella said...

He was picked up way back on May 4 and reserved when he was sent to the minors. He's been traded three times this year - twice while on reserve - and was activated by his current team this week.

Rodger A. Payne said...

It turns out that he was previously claimed in my league too -- I had missed it.