Looking at Separate Hitting/Pitching Inflation In-Season

I've talked before about how many leagues can have separate inflation for hitting versus pitching. In that post, I discussed how while there might be separate inflation rates, you're not necessarily going to price enforce pitchers all the way to their (typically) higher inflation rate if you're interested in filling out a complete roster.

However, I don't think I've ever actually looked at the data to see why this might be perilous.

Top 10 Alex Patton Predicted SP: A.L.

#	Player	$	AP	+/-	10%	25%	40%
1	Roy Halladay	$59	$33	+26	$36	$41	$46
2	CC Sabathia	$28	$32	-4	$35	$40	$45
3	Jon Lester	$6	$26	-20	$29	$33	$36
4	Zack Greinke	$63	$24	+39	$26	$30	$34
5	Francisco Liriano	-$18	$24	-42	$26	$30	$34
6	James Shields	$21	$24	-3	$26	$30	$34
7	Josh Beckett	$21	$23	-2	$25	$29	$32
8	Cliff Lee	$13	$23	-10	$25	$29	$32
9	Daisuke Matsuzaka	-$20	$19	-39	$21	$24	$27
10	Chien-Ming Wang	-$43	$19	-62	$21	$24	$27
	Average	$13	$25	-12	$27	$31	$35

Since Rototimes' Player Rater tells me that CC Sabathia's season to date is worth $6, I'm done with it. Instead, I'll use Alex Patton's imperfect method of calculating this year's values off of last year's formulas, except I'll prorate those values over the course of a full season. I know that the Yankees aren't going to let Wang lose $43, but at least these numbers feel somewhat more realistic based on what these players have done to date.

Looking beyond how crazy some of the earnings would be if these pitchers were able to maintain these absurd paces, what jumps out at me is how these pitchers who were projected to earn $25 per pitcher would cost $35 per pitcher if inflation were at 40%.

Oddly enough, the two pitchers I would have been most comfortable paying full inflation for back in early April would have been Halladay and Sabathia. Paying in the mid-$40s for pitchers who have earned $40 or more at least once isn't as outrageous as paying $36 for Lester or $34 for Shields would have seemed.

The average salary column is kind of meaningless; the reason there even is inflation in the first place is because a good chunk of these guys are typically frozen. But that's really what we're angling at here. If Sabathia and Beckett were the only pitchers available in your A.L. this year, did $46 for CC make more sense than $32 for Beckett? Looking at it another way, which price made less sense?

Top 10 Alex Patton Predicted SP: N.L.

#	Player	$	AP	+/-	10%	25%	40%
1	Johan Santana	$42	$34	+8	$37	$43	$48
2	Cole Hamels	$3	$30	-27	$33	$38	$42
3	Tim Lincecum	$37	$30	+7	$33	$38	$42
4	Jake Peavy	$21	$30	-9	$33	$38	$42
5	Brandon Webb	-$5	$30	-35	$33	$38	$42
6	Dan Haren	$58	$27	+31	$30	$34	$38
7	Roy Oswalt	-$3	$24	-27	$26	$30	$34
8	Ryan Dempster	$13	$20	-7	$22	$25	$28
9	Edinson Volquez	$8	$20	-12	$22	$25	$28
10	Ricky Nolasco	-$32	$19	-51	$21	$24	$27
	Average	$14	$26	-12	$29	$33	$37

Once again, I'm not comfortable with any of these 40% inflation prices. But, once again, I'm still a little more comfortable paying $48 for Santana than I am paying $28 for Dempster or Volquez.

Pitching earnings fluctuate more wildly than hitting earnings. If Hamels winds up earning $15 this year, few will blink. If Haren "only" earns $35, that won't come as a big surprise, either - he was cruising along to a $60 season in Oakland in 2007 and wound up "only" earning $29.

However, I can virtually guarantee you that Liriano, Matsuzaka, Wang, and Nolasco owners are either finished this year or at best in the middle of the pack and scuffling.

This is yet another reason why you want to make sure that your inflation isn't linear. Paying $45 for Halladay or Santana might result in a loss, but it's doubtful that it will be a season ender. Paying $27 for Nolasco or Wang most likely has ended a lot of Rotisserie seasons.

Shift your money to the better pitchers. Or, better yet, shift that money into hitting.