Finding Keepers

After I posted the results of my "regular" 2009 auction, bkharr was incredulous:

Good God, it's a miracle you guys keep anybody at those prices...

Oh, but we do. Typically, we keep somewhere in the neighborhood of 100-110 players. Obviously, some of these players are farm guys, but many of them are actually purchased at auction.

Here is the breakdown of the players kept in my league heading into 2009:
2005 Auction: 1
2006 Auction: 5
2006 Farm (not the year the player was drafted but the year he was added to an active roster): 3
2007 Auction: 19
2007 FAAB: 5
2007 Farm: 6
2008 Auction: 56
2008 FAAB: 13
2008 Farm: 9
2009 Farm: 3

Although some players come from FAAB (18), and via the farm (21), a vast majority are purchased at auction (81). Despite inflation, we often do find players at auction who will wind up becoming bargains and forming the core of our team in 2010 and beyond.

Since bkharr wonders how we keep guys at those prices, it's worth looking at who was kept in 2009 versus who was paid in 2008:

Billy Almon Brown Graduate:
Players Bought in 2008 and Frozen in 2009

Range	Bought in 2008	Kept in 2009	%
$40+	4	1	25.0%
$30-39	15	5	33.3%
$25-29	8	4	50.0%
$20-24	9	2	22.2%
$15-19	13	3	23.1%
$10-14	26	10	38.5%
$5-9	22	9	40.9%
$1-4	68	22	32.4%

Not surprisingly, the majority of freezes from last year's buys are in the bargain bin. However, the ROI on these guys isn't great. You had about a one-in-three chance of reaching into the grab bag and finding a freeze.

Compare that to the $25-29 range of players, where half of the eight players purchased turned into freezes. Or 38.5% of the $10-14 players became freezes the following year.

The prices we pay seem insane at the time. But there will be bargains to be had, even if we can't see them in April or even June.