Carlos Gonzalez

You ask, I answer:

What about Carlos Gonzalez? He was a top prospect with the A's (but didn't perform well last year) and just came up with the Rockies after tearing up AAA.

Fangraphs had a long write-up about Gonzalez after the Rox acquired him this winter. When you get past the wonky statistical analysis (it's saying something when I think an article is wonky), Fangraphs essentially thinks that Gonzalez has a lot of power potential but is going to have to learn to control the strike zone in order to have any sustainable MLB success.

I'd agree, and the first thing that's jumped out at me about Gonzalez's line the last three years are his 37/116, 38/109, and 29/116 BB/K ratios. Even for a player who has been young at every level he's been at, those numbers jump out, and suggest that Gonzalez is going to struggle until he learns better strike zone judgment.

The other Fangraphs number that jumps out at me is his GB % in Oakland in 2008. In 316 AB, Gonzalez hit a grounder in nearly 50% of his at-bats. While the prodigious amount of doubles suggest that more power is coming, there is no way that Gonzalez is going to hit grounders at a 49.3% rate and slug 25-30 HR as a major leaguer.

As far as Gonzalez's stellar numbers at Colorado Springs, that venue is one of the biggest bandboxes in professional baseball. Baseball Prospectus gave it a park factor of 1096 last year; in Triple-A, only Albuquerque scored higher. That doesn't mean that Gonzalez's 1048 OPS is worthless, but he'll have a hard time maintaining that rate in the majors.

The number I like from Colorado Springs is his BB/K ratio. He had a 22/32 rate in 193 AB. That's a much better walk rate, and if Gonzalez can simply maintain that rate in the majors, I think good things could happen.

The other thing I like about Gonzalez is that he's still young. He's 23 years old, and while that isn't an age that screams future superstar just because he's in the bigs, he is a player who got to the Show pretty fast. He could still improve quite a bit.

The linked Fangraphs referenced Juan Encarnacion as a possible comp for Gonzalez is things don't go well. While that sounds damning, Encarnacion was a player who hit 15+ HR six times and stole 15+ bases on four separate occasions. He was never a superstar by any stretch of the imagination but he provided a fair amount of Roto value at his peak.

I'm not saying that any of these future paths necessarily fit Gonzalez's profile. But keep in mind that a statistical disappointment can still be a viable commodity in Rotisserie.