CBS Sports added Steven Strasburg to its free agent pool. What would you bid on him?Right now? If I were still competing now, $3-5. I wouldn't want to waste my FAAB on a player who might flop next year. If I had already packed it in, maybe I'd bid $8 and see if I had a $10 keep on my hands.
Here's the problem:
Top 10 N.L. Baseball America Pitcher Prospects: 2004
| Rk | Player | '04 | '05 | '06 | '07 | '08 | Total |
| 1 | Edwin Jackson | -$4 | -$3 | -$6 | -$19 | $3 | -$29 |
| 2 | Greg Miller | DNP | AA | AAA | AAA | AAA | |
| 3 | Scott Kazmir | -$2 | $6 | $17 | $16 | $16 | $53 |
| 4 | Adam Loewen | A+ | A+ | -$4 | -$0 | -$7 | -$11 |
| 5 | Zach Greinke | $16 | -$17 | $1 | $11 | $18 | $29 |
| 6 | Cole Hamels | A+ | AA | $12 | $27 | $32 | $71 |
| 7 | Dustin McGowan | AA | -$5 | -$8 | $16 | $3 | $6 |
| 8 | Gavin Floyd | $2 | -$9 | -$10 | -$4 | $19 | -$2 |
| 9 | Chin-Hui Tsao | $2 | $0 | DNP | $1 | AAA | $3 |
| 10 | Angel Guzman | AA | A | -$14 | $1 | -$1 | -$14 |
| average | $1 | -$3 | -$4 | $5 | $8 | $11 |
These were the 10 best pitching prospects in baseball 10 years ago according to Baseball America. There aren't a lot of great comps here; most of these pitchers are high school arms that were less polished than Strasberg seems to be. But it seems to me that the same lessons we always have drummed into our heads apply:
1) TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect). Coming into 2004, Edwin Jackson was the closest thing to a consensus #1 that you would see in a pitcher. John Sickels "only" had him as his third best pitching prospect, while Baseball Prospectus also had him ranked first. Few expected Jackson to emerge as an ace in 2004, but I doubt anyone expected him to flounder around in the negative earnings for four years before finally getting into the black in 2008. Greg Miller was a "can't miss" arm that got hurt and then never made it. He's still struggling in the minors this year, five years after BA listed him as their #2. Some of these arms worked out, but only Greinke did fairly well in 2004...before struggling again in 2005. I don't like those odds.
2) In terms of expected performance, these pitchers are interchangeable. There are some success stories on this list, most notably Greinke. Cole Hamels, and Scott Kazmir. But you could have just as easily thrown your dart at Angel Guzman or Chin-Hui Tsao and missed the dartboard entirely. That isn't to say that you should never take a stab at a pitching prospect. But because there are so many of them - including pitchers that come out of nowhere to post good or even great numbers - it doesn't make a lot of sense to blow too much of your FAAB on one of them.
I know, I know...Strasberg is a special case. He looks tremendous, and he's going to be more of a consensus #1 pick by BA, BP, and Sickels than Edwin Jackson was.
But he's still risky. Could he put up a $20 season in 2010? I wouldn't put it past him, but history is not on his side.
2 comments:
"Strasberg is a special case."
So was Mark Prior, for that matter. I drafted Strasburg onto my farm team this year, but I'll gladly trade him for a #3 or #2 starter if someone offers one to me.
Yeah, I probably should have put the words special case in quotes, since that's what I was conveying.
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