Sunday, May 17, 2009

FAAB Log Supplemental: May 17, 2009

American League
Luke Hochevar

Anyone who plays American League Rotisserie knows who Hochevar is. He was the #1 overall draft pick in 2006 for the Royals, and it has been debated ever since whether or not Hochevar was a stretch at #1 or if he was a decent pick there that simply hasn't lived up to expectations. The scouting reports on him are always good (91-95 MPH fastball, plus curve, slider and change), but when you saw him actually pitch the fastball never seemed that fast and he just didn't have command of his secondary pitches. His demotion this spring led to howls of outrage, more because he was being demoted in favor of Sidney Ponson/Horacio Ramirez and the Royals should see what Hochevar should do rather than let those two stiffs log major league time.

Two starts later, I'm not so sure the Royals weren't wrong. I didn't see Hochevar's first disastrous start against the A's, but what I saw today against the Orioles didn't look good. He was lucky to hit 90 MPH on the gun with his fastball, and he was tentative, nibbling on the corners and not throwing quality pitches. He didn't get bombed, but he was lucky that he didn't. If you're playing for this year, I only recommend a modest bid of $3. Teams that have already packed it in might want to go to $7, but Hochevar's looked so bad that you probably won't have to. At 25 years of age, even the less optimistic future as a #3-4 MLB starter that people are now settling on for Hochevar seems far away.

National League
Mat Gamel
Gamel is one of those prospects that you have to bid upon on the scouting reports and not necessarily the stats. His numbers last year at AA Huntsville - while solid - don't scream elite prospect. However, a number of scouts rave about Gamel's bat and think that he could be a poor man's Ryan Braun for the Brewers at the hot corner. The speculation right now is that the Brewers brought him up to pinch-hit and play DH in their upcoming interleague series at Minnesota. The problem for Gamel is that - like Braun - his best position is probably DH, and the Brewers are out of 1B/corner OF slots to move him to. Short term, his best case scenario is some kind of 3B platoon with Bill Hall, but Gamel would have to break out like Braun did in 2007 for that to happen. Right now the bid is only $3, but that has to be upped to $13-15 in keeper leagues. I like Gamel, but I'm not sure where he fits in right now.

Gerardo Parra
A lot of novice owners probably don't know who Parra is, mainly because it didn't look like he'd be up until mid-2010 at the earliest. But a lackluster start by the D-backs combined with Conor Jackson's injury has given Parra an opportunity to play. He's got a sweet swing and probably is going to hit .280-.290 with a good amount of speed in a worst case scenario as a major league regular. The question long-term is whether or not he'll develop 15-20 HR power (or better) or if he's going to be more of a spray hitter. His defense in center might not be good enough in that case, and Parra runs the risk of being a tweener. Short term, I'd go $6. He should start for now over Eric Byrnes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep getting AB even after Jackson returns.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

CBS Sports added Steven Strasburg to its free agent pool. What would you bid on him?

Toz said...

In my opinion, Strasburg has no value this year in a non-keeper league. There are significant signability issues associated with Strasburg, so I expect that the deal with him gets done at the midnight hour (or after, as we've learned with Boras/Alvarez), which leaves Strasburg with very little time to prepare.

If you are in a keeper league, now you are presented with an intriguing bid. As a major-league untested pitcher who may or may not be in the rotation next year, you have to think about what price you would keep him at. I think $15 is the absolute ceiling, and I'm not sure I would go that high...$11-$13 might be my comfort zone, though it may not be enough to get him.