Distributing Risk

In retrospect, I feel guilty for convincing Rodger to keep Grady Sizemore at $40.

I bought Sizemore back for the same $40. You convinced me that he was likely to produce at least $30 worth of statistics, worth a few bucks more in an inflated market.

I still managed to distribute risk, as my next highest winning bid was $25 for Felix Hernandez. I obtained 6 other players for $11 to $23...

Rodger's distribution of risk makes me wonder how this was handled in my league by teams that either had a lot of money or a lot of players to buy (or both) and how successful each of these teams is (or isn't) at the moment.

Team 1 ($224 to spend on 19 players). Eight most expensive: Kevin Youkilis $31, Brian Fuentes $29, Torii Hunter $29, A.J. Burnett $25, Xavier Nady $22, Jered Weaver $21, Jason Bartlett $19, Mike Jacobs $16. Current position: 1st.

This is a fairly decent risk distribution; the only problem I saw coming out of the auction was that this owner spent $112 on pitching and wasn't trying a Sweeney Plan. Nevertheless, Nady was the only big bust on offense, and Bartlett's ludicrous production has more than made up for that to date.

Team 2 ($207/15). CC Sabathia $42, Alex Rodriguez $30, Derek Jeter $28, Felix Hernandez $28, Pat Burrell $20, Akinori Iwamura $13, Ken Griffey Jr. $9, Travis Hafner. Current position: 8th.

This team didn't spread its risk at all, spending $100 on CC, A-Rod, and Jeter within the first four calls of the entire auction! For the most part, though, this team's pitching was sabotaged by Chien-Ming Wang (frozen at $9) and ravaged by injuries (Burrell, Iwamura, Hafner). The expensive $25+ buys haven't worked out badly to date at all.

Team 3 ($183/11). Matt Holliday $42, Dustin Pedroia $41, Joe Nathan $38, Kerry Wood $30, Carlos Gomez $26, all others $1. Current position: 11th.

Stars and Scrubs all the way. With 12 freezes, you would expect some killer ones, but there isn't even one stud freeze in the mix. These buys would have made sense with a weak hitting/strong pitching freeze distribution if the owner wanted to implement a Sweeney Plan, but that isn't what he was doing. He dumped two weeks ago.

Team 4 ($181/18). Chone Figgins $29, Scott Kazmir $29, Nelson Cruz $27, Luke Scott $17, Mark Teahen $16, Russ Branyan $10, Kenji Johjima $9, Chris Getz $8. Current position: 10th.

Like Team 1, Team 4 engages in risk distribution, but it hasn't worked so well. The main problem here is pitching. Kazmir bombed, and Team 4's other big ticket item was Daisuke Matsuzaka frozen at $27. Surprisingly, the hitting has worked out better than one would have expected. Luke Scott is the hottest hitter in baseball right now, while Branyan has outperformed that salary and Cruz has nearly matched his.

Keep in mind that all of these teams were coming into the auction behind the eight-ball; teams with a lot of holes to fill typically don't have the value built into their freezes to win this year.

The biggest thing that jumps out at me is that spending big bucks on an ace is the quickest way to end your season if that ace dive bombs. Even when Kazmir comes back, his performance is a huge question mark. Team 4 is probably finished in pitching and, by extension, finished.

Team 1 is a good example of why distributing risk is a good idea. But the risks taken obviously have to be the right ones. I remember being lukewarm on Team 1's prices on Auction Day, but many of them have worked out. Beyond making the "right" calls at the table on Auction Day, you need a little luck as well.